Another MP Shot Dead...

This just in...

Ainamoi MP David Kimutai Too has been shot dead by a traffic policeman in West Indies estate in Eldoret.

Jirongo On A Bicycle: An Example For Us All

Cyrus Jirongo has been setting a great example for all our leaders. Read these two stories and ask yourself why your MP has not been demonstrating such exemplary leadership.

This has been going around in email.

In the midst of the hopelessness that we have watched helplessly, there are rays of hope.

This morning at a meeting, a friend who is Kikuyu but was born and brought up in Lugari (an area where the Kalenjin and several dialects of Luhya are dominant and borders Eldoret), shared with
us a story that I wish could be heard on national radio and TV as we have only been treated to the negative aspects.

After the major eruption of violence on Dec 30, his mother’s two buildings including the granary with the year’s produce was burned and her 8 cattle and 20 goats stolen. This was horrifying as she had always been assimilated into that community even though she is of a diffrent tribe.

Their local MP, Hon. Cyrus Jirongo who was voted in the small KADDU party, however decided to give leadership to his constituents. He put away his limousine and rode a bicycle to every village speaking to the people and showing them the folly of what they had done. They took the cue! They invited back the Kikuyu lady (as well as others who had been chased away) and different members of the community, in remorse and as a sign of their repentance, who are mainly peasant farmers took from their own produce and animals and restored what the lady had lost!

This is the only way for Kenya to heal back into a nation afre the divisions we have seen! We need more of these kinds of transformational leaders! Pray for more....!

It is such things that make one believe in Kenya, its leaders, and ultimately, in its people. As I see it, WE are all we have!

A few weeks ago there was another story on Jirongo in the Standard.

Lugari MP-elect Mr Cyrus Jirongo intervened to avert bloodshed in his constituency.

He dissuaded enraged youths out on a revenge mission on Saturday.

Jirongo, who had just addressed a peace rally at Lumakanda township, was on his way to Eldoret when his entourage ran into hundreds of people chanting war songs.

The Kaddu chairman alighted from his vehicle and began talking to the rowdy group to abandon its mission.

The move, at first, did not go down well with a section of them.

"Please I am begging you to go back to your homes. I am your MP and I promise to address all your grievances later but not in a charged atmosphere like the one we are in," pleaded Jirongo.

The MP confronted a group of young men, who were wielding machetes and took away their weapons. He warned them against harming anyone.

He pledged to establish a common fund that will assist victims of the recent skirmishes.

Luos Must Go, We Don't Need Them I Am Convinced Of That

I worry that voices of moderation are disappearing as this crisis drags on. Here is a log of an instant message chat I had with a Gikuyu colleague of mine who is in Kenya. He is truly a progressive moderate -- or at least he was until December 30, 2007.

When I read this I worry and I fear for our country. Where have all the sane people gone?

HIM: Luos must go.
ME: Nonsense.
HIM: We don’t need them I am convinced of that.
ME: You should not say that, we do need them. They are as Kenyan as the Gikuyu.
HIM: We are as Kenyan as them.
ME: True, but the Gikuyu did steal this election. No doubt.
HIM: But the truth is the Gikuyu manage resources better than they do. They stole also.
ME: There is no evidence of that.
HIM: We are all thieves but we make better thieves.
ME: LOL.

(I read online about Mugabe Were’s murder)

ME: Oh dear, taabu, why did they kill Were.
HIM: I don't know.
ME: This thing is getting out of control.
HIM: I tell you.
ME: The Gikuyu mobs in Naivasha, Nakuru and Huruma, who is controlling them?
HIM: We are financing them.
ME: Why, why, why? Self defense I can understand, but burning helpless people in their homes is not right.
HIM: It’s for self defense.
ME: Nonsense, the killing of unarmed women and children huddled in a house in fear is not self defense.
HIM: They wanted to make a point which they have made.
ME: Sawa, then the Gikuyu need to have many kids otherwise in a generation or two they will be wiped out by the some other tribe.
HIM: Hence the self defense.
ME: No. You cannot kill me today because someone of my ethnicity may or may not kill you 10 or 50 years from now.

If Kibaki Is A Demon Are Raila & Ruto Saints?

I am astounded that so many people in the blogosphere are steadfastly holding to the claim that Kibaki is solely responsible for all that has befallen Kenya since December 27th. I find that a naive and simply untenable view.

Gikuyu were going to die in North Rift irrespective of the outcome of the election. How on earth can Kibaki be responsible for the arming and organizing of these Kalenjin thugs? Why are we not holding Ruto responsible for his actions, or at the very least those of his people?

You know what, maybe these folks are right. Maybe we should charge Kibaki for the killing of the women and children in that church in Eldoret. We should charge him for organizing the destruction of Kisumu and the burning of Kibera. We should hold him culpable for the riots in Likoni and elsewhere. And lest we forget the atrocious burning of terrified residents in Naivasha is his doing too.

We should similarly hold Kibaki responsible for all acts of election malfeasance including those in his favor and those against. He should be held responsible for all those Gikuyu voters in North Rift who were not allowed to get to their polling stations. The amazing >100% turnout in Nyanza and Western are clearly have his paw prints all over them.

While Kibaki's trials are ongoing, I suggest we nominate William Ruto for the Nobel Peace Prize for going above and beyond the call of duty in ensuring that the situation in North Rift did not get out of hand. Clearly his speech in Eldoret this weekend was timely and just what the country needed.

And lest we forget, Raila Amolo Odinga should get the MLK Freedom Award (that recognizes residents dedicated to promoting justice, peace, freedom, nonviolence and racial equality) for his magnanimity in making 2 unforgettable statements. Clearly he too is a class act.
1) " I refuse to be asked to give the Kenyan people an anaesthetic so that they can be raped."
2) "We should have seven of the 10 parliamentary seats in Kisii, but Kibaki men stole the votes and we only got four. The Kisii are our people. We must not touch them."

People, only one politician. ONE. Has shown that he is a true peace lover through this whole debacle. Cyrus Jirongo who supposedly took to riding a bicycle in Lugari to admonish his constituents from carrying out acts of violence.

I am disgusted at how we are acting in the face of this crisis. We're supposed to be the educated ones, the more sober minded but we act just like those thugs on the Nairobi-Malaba highway.

Melitus Mugabe Were, RIP

Melitus Mugabe Were. Shot dead at 39.

Were, a newly elected Member of Parliament for Embakasi, was the founder and director of Villa Teag Center for Orphans in Dandora. He is pictured alone and with his brothers who are also philanthropists (the deceased is on the left).

What has our country come to when we kill such honorable men?

Source: Soulfari Kenya website

Where Is Kibaki? Or The Return of General Kiguoya

[Unlike what was suggested on Misterseed, I need to clarify that these are not my words. These are the words of a Gikuyu man with whom I was speaking. Certain possibly identifying details have been changed but not one word is my own. His thesis was not that "Kibaki should kill all the other tribes" as someone said on Mashada, but how can Kibaki as president watch his own being killed by the Kalenjin and do nothing to protect them. I was astonished to see that this die-hard Kibaki supporter was now extremely bitter about the perceived lack of action on Kibaki's part. -Silaha]

A Gikuyu's rant captured almost verbatim

What is wrong with Kibaki, why is he just sitting in State House? We voted for him and we're dying for voting for him yet he is doing nothing. He should protect his people. Kibaki is a do nothing president. Please try and tell me one thing that this guy has done. Useless Kibaki. One month and what has he done? The only places he has gone even in Nairobi are to Harambee House (because Kofi Annan insisted) and to open Parliament.

If there was a vote to be done again, Gikuyu would not wake up at six o'clock to vote for him. We would vote for Kalonzo or Uhuru before we vote for Kibaki who has shown such weakness it is unbeliveable. All he does is to drool and sleep, what a useless guy. What kind of president do we have? Or is he so sick that he cannot function? Did the grind of the campaign take a toll on him? Is he getting senile?

And you're telling me he is a normal guy? No way, this is not leadership. Visibility is important. Think about George W. Bush during Hurricane Katrina, during a crisis visibiliy of the leader, the CEO, is critical. Kibaki is doing zero, nothing. He is not even talking to people in Nairobi. The country is being run by thugs, Kalenjin thugs, Gikuyu thugs, Luo thugs ... being run by thugs.

Why is Kibaki not talking? Why is he not being presidential? Raila makes more statements than our own president. Maybe he should just go back to Muthaiga or to Othaya. That guy has lost marks ... he is a good president when things are good, but when there is a crisis he is a coward big time, or he is senile or sick, I don't know what he is.

Not even one Gikuyu MP is talking, they are shutting up. Is the collective Gikuyu leadership stupid or why are they not talking? During the 1992 clashes Nyanja and company used to talk, they used to say for every one Gikuyu who dies we'll kill two of theirs. Where is Martha Karua? Only Wangari Maathai has the guts to talk.

The Gikuyu have totally forgotten about Raila -- the Luo have been taken care of -- he's not the one who has sent Kalenjins to fight. Since Thursday last week when Nakuru erupted Raila has not been in the picture. There are two things on the Gikuyu mind, we are we being killed by the Kalenjin and where is our president? Where is he sleeping and why? Could you imagine this happening in Kenyatta's time? No way.

Even if this killing of the Gikuyu stops we know one thing, we don't have a leader, this guy cannot even control his own house. We'll have an enemy in the Luos and the Kalenjin, but we'll have an enemy in our own house. We do not have respect for our own leader. We should take things into our own hands, we should not expect help from any quarters.

No business is flowing? The Kalenjin have said that no business will go on. How are the Kalenjin able to function with impunity? Burning houses in front of the President. That day that the President was in Eldoret the Kalenjins had surrounded that location. The Gikuyu were afraid when the President was there. These Kalenjin are warriors.

What government do we have? Is this a government? And we're supposed to have a president? What president? Could you imagine what this would have been for the Agikuyu had Raila been elected president? We would have been destroyed. The Gikuyu right are undergoing crazy things right now all because of Kibaki's inaction. How can these things happen to the Gikuyu during the term of a Gikuyu president?

***

My brother had construction equipment in Sotik and he went there by matatu to go pick it up. When he got there the people told him not to talk Gikuyu. He had to hire a Luo flatbed truck to ship his equipment to Nairobi, but they insisted on driving through Narok to avoid Nakuru and other parts of North Rift. In Molo he saw Gikuyus walking towards Nakuru with their belongings on one side of the road, on the other side were Kalenjin youth with bows and arrows ensuring that all the Gikuyu vermin had left. What astounded him was that while the matatu he was in were being escorted by police but they did nothing about the thugs with bows and arrows.

In Nakuru a few nights ago Kalenjin youth came there in trucks in groups of 200 and they terrorized Nakuru. They only left when the Army was deployed because the police officers, who are mostly Kalenjin, would not do anthing to stop their Kalenjin compatriots from killing Gikuyu. I have relatives in Nakuru town who will not sleep in their houses because they are so afraid of Kalenjins burning their houses down in the middle of the night.

My own relatives are moving from Warubaga (Elburgon) and moving to our home in Kabete, because we have a useless president.

***

Things will return to normal when the Gikuyu and the Kalenjin decide that things will return to normal. The next move is that the Gikuyu will begin to protest against the President. And this will play right into ODM's hands.

Why Not Disarm The Mobs? And Who Polices The Policemen?

Since the beginning of this fiasco I have watched many news reports and I have been wondering why the security forces are not disarming those people walking down the streets with machetes? What else could these thugs be using those weapons for if not to hack fellow Kenyans to death.

Then the security forces themselves are acting in an unacceptable manner. I am sure we have all seen the shocking footage of the policeman executing the "Man in Black". Simply shocking, but in my mind simply a continuation of the extra-judicial killings that began last year. What happened to the gentlemen policemen like the GSU bloke I saw on footage chatting firmly but amicably with Charity Ngilu. What have we become?

Neo Mau-Mau Presidential Candidate or The Wazees and Mugiki

Do you know who got the fourth most votes in the recent presidential election?

I did not think you did. Joseph Ngacha Karani received 14,232 votes (according to the ECK – and we all know how well they count). His party has an innocuous sounding name Kenya Patriotic Trust Party, yet a little time spent on Google will disclose that Karani is the chairman of the Mau Mau Original Trust that has been raising money from ex-Mau Mau and their sympathizers ostensibly to fund a case for retribution against the British. In one newspaper article he is reported to have said:

We operate the way Mau Mau operated – secretly. Why should we disclose our secrets?

I originally became aware of this when Kivuitu mentioned it soon after the election. So why has nobody else picked up on that -- except for 14,232 other souls.

...

My heart bleeds for my country, our Kenya. This is not, however, a time for much reflection. We need to act and act with haste. The events in Nakuru yesterday and in Huruma Nairobi last weekend are not isolated incidents. They signal the rise of the militant Gikuyu response to the post election mayhem and with that Raila and Kibaki may have unleashed a monster that will not easily be contained.

Could it be that the Gikuyu have been planning a resurgence of the Mau-Mau for a while now? What the Luo/Kalenjin foot soldier may not realize is that they cannot eliminate the Gikuyu. The Railas and Rutos know this, but the average Onyango and Kip-whatever does not. They are fighting against an army that has been intact for 15 years. They will lose -- or more likely -- we will all lose.

The Wazees hated Mungiki when it was a "menace" and it interfered with their business interests, but now that a greater threat has come against Gikuyustan they will form (have formed?) an unholy alliance against the Kalenjin primarily but also the Luos and to some extent others. But they need to be careful. Michuki (one of the Wazees if there ever was one) said once "if you step on a snake expect to be bitten", well what happens when you get into bed with a snake?

Food for thought: Kenyatta knew nothing about the Muhimu the central Mau Mau leadership until it threatened him in September of 1952. What do the Wazees really know about Mungiki? Or, as earlier news reports suggested, have they already been threatened.

The Quad of Death: Kenya's North Rift Tinderbox

(click on image for larger map)

Over the last few days I have been trolling the Internet capturing stories about the troubles and mob activity from various blogs and websites. It is becoming apparent that there is an area of the North Rift broadly bounded by Kericho, Nakuru, Kapsowar and Kericho where the clashes were most severe and, to quote Bishop Korir, probably planned. The heart of this Quad of Death is Eldoret.

If the ethnic cleansing was successful in this granary of our country how will we measure the cost both in human and economic terms. Even if the evictors are as capable and productive as the evicted there is a learning curve to everything so we will see a significant drop in output over the next few years. Are we ready for this? Can we be ready for this? How do we convince business owners and farmers who fear for their lives to return to their homes? Are they really their homes or does the land truly belong to the indigenous people?

Questions, questions. We'll need to address these issues or they will recur.

Worried.

Kenya Troubles -- View From North Rift

Double 6 writes Conflict In Africa blog. He says:

I have considered Kenya home for over 4 years. In many senses, I feel I’ve come of age while living in this East African Eden. It does things to me that no other place has. I have always felt Kenya was different than other African countries.

After witnessing peaceful voting in Nairobi on the 27th, he left with a friend to drive to Uganda on the 29th, this is his story.

On December 29th I was driving with a friend towards Uganda. We were going on a safari for a few days to celebrate the New Year. To get to Uganda from Kenya you must drive through Nyanza,Western, and Rift Valley provinces, all ODM strongholds. We started to get text messages that things were stirring up in Nairobi with large groups of demonstrators taking to the streets. Shortly after learning of this, we pulled into the town of Eldoret. There was a strange vibe in the air. At one end of town the road had been blocked by huge boulders pushed across the road. We drove around them, and cautiously proceeded into town. We saw smoke burning at one end of town. We headed north on the road to the Malaba border. The street was lined with men, standing shoulder to shoulder, two or three deep. It was noon, but all of the shops were eerily closed. The men looked pensive, the crowd was charged; they pumped clinched fists. The air felt combustible. We hurriedly proceeded through town, swerving around a tire burning in the street. We then came to our first roadblock. Rowdy youths were beginning to congregate and had blocked the road with stones. We rolled up the windows and drove around them as they cheered, waving machetes, clubs, and rocks in the air. My heart rate went up and I felt adrenaline surge through my body. The Uganda border was an hour away. We proceeded, not knowing what was ahead. In minutes we met another roadblock, a larger crowd blocked our vehicle. We continued, unsure what to do. Then we came to several youths lying across the road, some sharpening their machetes by scraping them across the tarmac. I rolled down the window to negotiate. They demanded money and stated we couldn’t continue. Looking down the road we saw a crowd of at least 1,000 people blocking the road. Traffic ground to a halt. We were pinned. My friend JP turned the Landcruiser around and we conversed in quick, sudden bursts, fear oozing through the vehicle’s interior. Several more young men surrounded our car. One raised a boulder and threatened to throw it at the windshield. Another knocked the rear glass with a club. They began yelling. JP lunged the Landcruiser at a guy standing in our path. He dove out of the way and we quickly accelerated back towards Eldoret, clearly shaken.

At the junction with the Kitale road, all transport trucks and cars had pulled off the side of the road. I chatted with several people. They said fighting had started in Eldoret, the town we’d passed through 30 minutes ago. We inquired about the Kitale road. We decided to give it a try. Within 10 minutes, just south of the village of Soy, we met another angry mob. They were shouting ODM party slogans and demanding that the ECK pronounce the winner. Most of the protestors were ethnic Luos and Kalenjins. They began to take out their political frustrations on ethnic Kikuyus. This is one of the reasons they were blocking the road. They were looking for supporters of PNU (Kibaki’s party), angered by fears that the votes were being manipulated. We couldn’t proceed and again turned around. The uncertainty of what was unfolding was most unsettling. We were trapped. We had been blocked and threatened in both directions. Civil unrest simmered, while political frustrations fueled ethnic conflict. Luckily, a few hundred meters back there was an army barracks. We pulled in and drove up to the heavily guarded gate to shelter with several other travelers who sought refuge from the uncertainty of the mob. A Kikuyu driver was hiding with his vehicle. He was clearly afraid. Fighting back tears, he said that he was forced to lock himself in his room and hide under his bed earlier in the day. Another group of Kikuyus fearing retribution from the frenzied mob, hid in a shelter near the barracks. I went and spoke to them. They were terrified. The soldiers guarding the base assured us protection.

No cars were moving. Then the mob went on a rampage, and started raiding shops and homes on the road a few hundred meters in front of us. One man ran for his life. I was sure I was about to witness him being beaten to death. I witnessed his beating, but he managed to get up and run. His attackers didn’t pursue. We stood there, with our ringside seats to this sick event, paralyzed by this sudden onslaught of violence. Now I know this was not an isolated incident. It was merely the start to a bloodletting that has been going on for three days. After several hours of remaining in the shadows of soldiers who had assured us protection, the crowd dispersed and cars started to move again. We waited a while and then also proceeded, wheeling back onto the road to Kitale.

I studied my Kenya map and found several rough roads that went east and south, avoiding towns and villages. It was the only way to get back to where we came from and away from the violence, without passing through Eldoret. The day was getting late and we needed to be off the road by nightfall. We were staying in touch with other friends and colleagues around the country who were also bracing for whatever was coming. Thankfully our cell phones continued to work. JP pushed the Landcruiser hard as we raced south towards Iten, and then into the Kerio Valley. We climbed up the eastern side of the valley and entered the town of Kabarnet. Things were quiet, but a clear tension was felt. The interactions on the street were not those of a typical day at dusk in a rural Kenyan town. Something was amiss, astir. We filled up with diesel and considered our options. Two other friends were already camping within the compound of a hotel next to Lake Bogoria. They were about an hour away and had reported no problems in their area. Deciding it was the best option, we blasted out of town and slipped down towards the village of Marigat in darkness. Within an hour we reached the Lake Bogoria Hotel where our friends were camping. We put up our tents and began swapping stories.

Will Raila Link Derail Obama's Candidacy?

I have this eerie sense of foreboding that Kenya's troubles will have significant negative impact on US presidential contender Barack Obama. As an Obama supporter, I am concerned because I think the link could possibly ultimately derail his campaign, or at least put it into major damage control mode. I don't think that Kenya's post election problems, in and of themselves, would have had a negative impact on Obama -- Americans recognize that everybody is originally from somewhere -- had it not been for Raila's recent assertion that "Obama's father was his maternal uncle". Those are words that Obama will come to regret deeply.

The level of scrutiny that US presidential candidates are subjected to is totally and unashamedly intrusive. (Not anything that Raila could ever imagine.) Every pup journalist in the US (and an old dogs or two around the world too) wants to break the next big story. By claiming kin hood to Obama, Raila has opened himself up to this same scrutiny. He will wish that he had not. Everything about Raila -- his education (in communist East Germany), his businesses (oil trading as Minister of Energy), his son's name (Fidel Castro), his Hummer, his wealth (so how exactly does a politician in one of the poorest countries in the world become that rich, there are reports on the internet claiming that he is worth about US$60 million), even the odd thing or twenty that Raila himself may have long forgotten -- is going to be uncovered in the next few weeks. Probably most concerning to the American populace will be his MOU with the Muslims and his endorsement by NAMLEF (National Muslim Leaders Forum) supposedly because of Kibaki's "renditioning of Muslims to Guantanamo, Ethiopia and Somalia".

There are things that Raila has done, I am sure, that, while they may not be illegal or even unethical in Kenya, would not be kosher in the US, and the US media and blogosphere will measure these actions with a US yardstick. (American's are not renowned for their empathy.)

I think this is unfortunate, even if they truly related -- more than the sense that all Luos are related or all Gikuyus are sons and daughters of Mumbi -- Obama should be evaluated on his own merits. But Obama has built a relationship with Raila (or vice versa) and when Obama was in Kenya he was often seen in Raila's company. I can see it now... Raila and Obama are cousins, Raila studied in East Germany and named his son Fidel Castro, Raila is friendly with Muslims and thus against the War on Terror -- his supporters even burned women and children in a Christian church -- (a stretch I know, but they will say it), Raila and Obama are not just cousins, they are friends, Obama's middle name is Hussein, therefore Obama is not going to continue the War on Terror. Not logically sound, but brace yourselves ... expect it.

The scrutiny has already begun.

On the Kenya front the newly disclosed kinship may similarly work against Raila. The US presidency is far bigger than anything Kenyan -- after all the US has about 25% of the world GDP. I expect that Raila will get a more than gentle nudge from his dear cousin to settle this post election impasse like yesterday even if he has to acquiesce. "Come on cuz, if I win this far bigger thing we will settle this Kibaki thing once and for all, trust me."

Oh, things are getting more interesting by the moment.

Cellar Group: Citizen's Solution for Lasting Peace

The Cellar Group has come back with another iteration of their document (I published the earlier version a few days ago). I think they have advanced their thinking considerably. Here goes.

CITIZEN’S SOLUTION FOR LASTING PEACE

We the citizens of Kenya went to the polls on December 27, 2007 to elect a new government. However, the election has resulted in a stalemate. Following this, we the citizens would like to observe the following:
• Both sides of the divide have substantial support across the country, with over 4 million of us voting for each of the two leading presidential candidates, Hon. Raila Odinga and Hon. Mwai Kibaki.
• We the citizens are disheartened at the loss of life, destruction of property and the increasing polarization of our people. We observe that the current situation has created an opportunity for the emergence of criminal gangs that are harassing us. We fear that if the situation is not addressed, things could get worse.
• We also recognize that the current conflict reflects shortcomings in the electoral process as well as in our constitutional order. Of particular concern are issues of regional and economic equity and opportunity.
• In our view that unless the two of you work together, the country will remain deeply divided and unstable.
• It is our view that a power‐sharing arrangement is critical as a way forward.
• We appeal to you, Hon. Mwai Kibaki and Hon. Raila Odinga, to lead us out of this state of hopelessness by considering the Citizens Solution for a Lasting Peace outlined below.

Proposed Structure of Government

Head of State (President and Commander‐in‐Chief) – 5 year term
Appoints with parliamentary approval:
• Minister for Internal Security & Defense
• Minister for Foreign Affairs
• Judicial Service Commission and Public
• Service Commission

Head of Government (Executive Prime Minister) – 5 year term
Appoints with parliamentary approval all
• Other ministers according to a pre‐agreed party mix and regional balance formula
• Chairs Cabinet

Notes
• First order of parliamentary business will be to fast‐track legislation to entrench the above structure
• For all constitutional offices and senior government and parastatal positions, Public Service Commission and Judicial Service Commission will perform recruiting and vetting and then submit shortlist to the Head of Government with a view to national diversity IPPG becomes law and is operationalized
• Adoption of PRSP as the over‐arching development plan of the country
• Judicial Service Commission to appoint judges subject to parliamentary vetting
• Staggered 5‐year term for Head of State and Head of Government

National Reconstruction (Medium Term)
To implement the above government structure and to heal the deep divisions among the people, the following activities must start immediately and continue:
• Immediate joint initiatives for peace including weekly Joint Peace Rallies and call for return to calm.
• Urgent repatriation and resettlement of displaced people
• Independent review and improvements in the electoral law and process going forward and reconstitution of joint election commission
• Infrastructure Marshall Plan with regional balance as a priority and strengthening of Regional Development Authorities
• Funded Land Restitution Mechanism administered to the principles that every Kenyan has the right to live in any part of the country and that local people in every community should be facilitated to own land in their own community
• Significant expansion of the Constituency Development Funds and establishment of ministry to administer it
• Repayment Commission where those alleged to have illegally acquired property return it in exchange for immunity from future prosecution
• Affirmative Action (special attention in all government activities and allocations to regional balance and economic equity)

Send comments to: citizensolution@gmail.com

Kenya Troubles -- View From Jamhuri Park

I found Nairobi TypO's blog today and she has a heart wrenching story about the lives of the 4,000 internally displaced people seeking refugees at Jamhuri Park.

My Tuesday started with the good news that the Association agreed to donate money to a local charity that is working on the ground with displaced people here in Nairobi. We were also lucky enough to have a guest speaker, Merry, speak on behalf of the Jamii Bora Trust and tell us what was going on in Jamhuri Park which has become a haven for internally displaced people (refugees) who have been affected by the post election violence.

The picture she painted was so vivid that I immediately asked around the table if anyone was going to the Park to volunteer and if I could tag along. Spice, a Kenyan friend of mine, said that she had been there on Saturday and would be happy to take me around the next day to see what was going on.

This morning, I spent two amazing hours at Jamhuri Park and saw firsthand what was going on there. Currently being run in conjunction with the Red Cross, the National Alliance of Churches, Map International, World Relief, and other local organizations, the grounds are currently home to over 4,000 people, over half of whom are children. After registering, the “guests” are given access to food, water, counseling, medication, and most importantly, security.

Our first stop was a building that usually housed agricultural displays but was now home to more than 50 people who slept on its cement floors. Although most people in this room had a mattress on which to sleep, not everyone was so lucky. This would also be the first of many times over the next few hours that we would hear about people not having enough food or blankets despite reports to the contrary from the organizers we spoke with.

Sleeping spaces are first come, first serve. So people who have been here longer were able to obtain covered spots to sleep. Those who have arrived more recently, and those we saw registering today, will likely have to sleep outside in the arena. I asked how people slept under the mosquito nets I saw being readied for distribution, if they were sleeping under the stars. One of the volunteers said that some people wrap themselves up in the nets but most have to do without – this despite the huge number of mosquitoes that have been in the area lately.

The next sleeping area I was taken to had families of 3 to 6 people sleeping in cinderblock areas that are probably normally used for vendors. The three-sided blocks are about 2 meters by 4 meters and plastic sheeting to form the door or fourth wall. The first “cube” we visited had a different family in it than Spice had met last week as the old family had left to live with families in a local shamba.

Families, many of whom were busy cooking meals, occupied most of these cubes. One mother explained that her kids were not being given enough food so she had to find extra food and ask the volunteers for cooking oil.

Next to the cubes was a small area where people placed their rubbish to be burned. This too, we were told, was home to several men who slept there at night.

I asked one of the organizers about the police presence in Jamhuri Park and was told that they had not had many problems and that the police made people feel safe. The previous night some men from Kibera had crossed the arena wall to bring in a man who was accused of raping children. The men, he told us, knew there were police in Jamhuri who could help them.

The police were also there to deal with what may have once been called petty theft. We saw one crippled man who was talking to several officers about how his clothes had been stolen. A few shirts might not seem like much, but when that’s all you have in the world – the loss isn’t that petty.

I realize that today’s blog is getting long so I will finish my tale tomorrow by telling you more about the food situation, why some people won’t be able to go home for a while, and why that worries many of the organizers.

Cellar Group: Citizens Pathway to the Future

A group of concerned professional Kenyans met at the Cellar Restaurant at Valley Arcade, Nairobi and produced this document that they are going to share with Raila and Kibaki.

A stellar job and part of the reason why I am convinced that we have the capacity (with a little international facilitation perhaps) to come up with a creative Kenyan solution to this very Kenyan problem.

1 Citizens pathway to the future

An analytical framework to inform efforts at resolving the current impasse

At this unfortunate stage in our nation’s history, we have come together as a group of professionals to offer some analytical input into the current situation with a view to guiding efforts aimed at achieving national reconciliation, healing and return to the development path that Kenya is known for the world over.
The analytical framework includes six elements together with a 7th on how this input may be shared with other interested groups and the media and begin to bring sobriety to the present tragic situation. The six elements include:

1. Key pre-election issues: We highlight some of the key pre-election issues that are a feature of our society and based on how these were dealt with during the campaign period, may have accentuated divisions and continue to contribute to the hard-line positions taken by the major protagonists;
2. The election process and its impact: Here, we capture a synopsis of the election process and how it has impacted on the current situation;
3. The case for negotiation for the two protagonists: We present the propelling case for both President Kibaki and Hon Raila Odinga to come to the negotiating table;
4. The path to, and consequences of failure: We extrapolate how the current hard-line positions could pan out to what may appear to be short-term success for the protagonists but will ultimately lead to failure of Kenya as the nation we know today;
5. Possible negotiation agenda: We highlight the key issues that need to be negotiated to come to a settlement that will not only solve the current crisis, but also strengthen national institutions to guard against possible recurrence of similar situations in the future;
6. Post-crisis negotiated scenario: Predicated on successful negotiations, we paint a picture of how the present dark circumstances could transform into a possible desired future that we can all be proud of and earn Kenya pride of place among the international community.
7. Sharing and dissemination: This sets out the possible approaches to sharing this framework with a view to putting on the agenda of the key protagonists as well as in the public domain.
   

The group that has deliberated this framework brings to the table professional experience, objective analysis and integrative complexity that enables all actors to obtain a broader perspective of the present circumstances, likely outcomes and possible pathway to a positive future. We believe Kenya has the capacity to emerge from the present circumstances a stronger nation.

1.1 Key pre-election issues
The current national crisis may be traced back to a number of historical issues that are a key feature of our society and which need deeper analysis and specific policies to manage them as they cannot be wished away. During the pre-election process, the key ones that were used to accentuate divisions and whip up emotions include:

1. Transition failure: The NARC Government that came into power in 2002 was elected on a reform platform to redress both the political and economic failures of previous Governments. Whilst there are some credible gains on the economic front, little attention has been paid to the building of a robust political institutional framework and restitutional justice. On the contrary, efforts at political reform and redressing historical injustices have been thwarted by the Government including in the lead up to the elections. The continued focus on the economic pillar with little regard for political reforms has left the country with a strong foundation on one side and a crumbling one on the other. The pursuit of an economic agenda at the exclusion of political reforms has been demonstrated to be unsustainable by the current crisis. This had already been foreseen as a possible outcome in “Kenya at the crossroads: Scenarios for our Future” published by the Institute of Economic Affairs in April 2000.
2. Class/ access to resources/ exclusion/ us and them: The issues of inequality and inequity were used to bring out class divisions and to highlight how some groups have been denied access to economic resources and thus continuing to exclude them from economic activity and further impoverishing them. These issues were targeted at particular regions (Rift valley, Nyanza, Nairobi, North Eastern and Coast provinces), as well as the youth. The culprits were identified as the ruling class who happen to comprise largely one community, as well as the Asian community particularly in Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu;
3. Ethnic tensions: Ethnic divisions go back to pre-colonial times and the country has yet to come to terms with the reality of our ethnic diversity and see this as a source of wealth rather than a basis for heightening divisions. Unfortunately, the election campaigns were characterized by a whipping up of emotions and ‘demonising’ of particular ethnic groups leading to the current rift in the country (the Luo as violent and hungry for power and any candidate from the community being unelectable; the Kikuyu as arrogant, selfish, domineering, and unwilling to share economic gains with any other community; the Kalenjin as corrupt or beneficiaries of corruption).
4. Disregard for the rule of law: In the lead up to the elections, we saw state-sanctioned disregard for the rule of law on the one part (whether this be Matatus, hawkers, and the dolling out of development goodies), and violence visited upon opponents and their supporters with impunity. This may have further fanned the powder keg that ignited in the last days of the tallying process and escalated into a national crisis after the announcement of the final results.
5. Campaign financing resulting in strong vested interests in each camp which may be contributing to the hard-line positions taken there is need to take cognizance of these issues and draw lessons on how the treatment of these issues may have contributed to the current crisis. More importantly, we must identify more responsible approaches for managing some of these deep rooted issues especially in pre-election periods. Key amongst the approaches is establishing the institutional framework for policing the campaign process to ensure that these do not accentuate divisions and spread hate the way the last campaign did.

1.2 The election process and its impact

Since the late 90s, there has been a comprehensive programme of civic education mainly undertaken by Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) with the support of various international Development Partners. This together with the voter registration campaign resulted in increased civic awareness by a large section of the population, and especially the youth. As a result, the number of registered voters increased from about 9m in 2002 to over14m at the time of the election in 2007. The result of this civic and voter education was considerable improvement in democratic empowerment and the realization by the people of Kenya that they indeed had the power to determine how they are governed.

This civic awareness manifested itself in individual commitment and sacrifice by voters to turn-out in large numbers on election day to make their democratic choice. This also provided the point of individual involvement and responsibility for the present circumstances. As was evidenced on election day, most voters believed that they had fulfilled their civic duty and it was now up to the ECK to play its role of ensuring free, fair and transparent elections that would reflect the will of the people. This appeared to be going on well with the counting and public release of results. By the end of day on Friday 28th December, there appeared to have been acceptance that Hon Raila Odinga was poised to be the next President of Kenya and even those constituents who may have voted for the opposite camp appeared to be resigning themselves to such an eventuality. And then the disputes begun to emerge on Saturday 29th December and by Sunday 30th, the election results appeared to have taken a dramatic turn in favour of the incumbent. Going by the objections that had begun to be raised, the delays experienced in announcing some results, and the pictures of chaos emerging from various tallying centres, the credibility of the results, particularly the presidential poll, begun to be put in question. The circumstances under which the final presidential results were announced and subsequent hurried swearing-in did nothing to allay the fears that had been raised about the results.
Before and after the announcement of the final results, a number of people came forward to present evidence which indicated that the final result announced by ECK may not have been accurate and therefore subverted the will of the people. Those who thought that the results had robbed them off their democratic choice had already begun to express their anger and frustration even before the final announcement and this has now culminated into national crisis of a scale never imagined in this country. Suddenly, this became a traumatic incident that we had all individually contributed to through our voting as well as the debates we were having and the inner sentiments we harboured about the possible outcomes. This personal involvement by virtually every member of the populace perhaps explains why the circumstances have gripped the nation the way they have.

A number of conclusions can be made of the election process and its impact:

• Individual Kenyans had invested heavily in the process and therefore had a stake in the results. Many people remain baffled by the turn of events and wonder how their positive contribution by voting could have led to such negative and painful outcome for them.
• The conduct of the ECK and party agents both and constituency tallying centres and at KICC left a lot to be desired and considerably undermined the credibility of the results;
• Flawed as it was, the final result indicated that no one candidate received the popular mandate of the majority of Kenyans. Each of the leading candidates had more Kenyans voting AGAINST them than those who voted FOR them;
• Fundamental issues remain that need to be addressed if Kenyans are to restore faith in the electoral process. Such issues include a re-tallying of the votes, amendment to electoral laws and regulations, as well as constitutional reforms to address the shortfalls identified.

As a search for reconciliation continues, the priority should be placed on:

• Putting an immediate stop to the violence and destruction of property following the flawed elections:
• Bringing closure to the election through a re-tallying of votes or otherwise agreeing on the result;
• Administrative, legal and constitutional changes to address the institutional weaknesses identified by the election fiasco.

1.3 The case for negotiation for Kibaki and Raila

Both President Kibaki and Hon Raila, as well as their parties appear to have taken a hard-line position that does not lend itself to dialogue and a negotiated settlement. However, both need to realize that they have a major stake and interests that make it necessary for each of them to come to the negotiating table at the earliest opportunity. That is what we, as citizens are calling for.

As the incumbent, President Kibaki has a lot to lose from the present circumstances. To start with, his five year legacy has gone down the drain overnight. Kibaki promised improved economic performance, the events of the last few days will see the economy perform dismally leading to lower domestic revenues and growth rate worse than what we saw during the worst Moi years. Kibaki promised democratic empowerment but the impact of the post election situation is a reversal of virtually every gain made over the last five years – more than half the population feel disenfranchised and the gains made in opening up the democratic space have been eroded – especially media freedom. Kibaki promised national unity but the country is now more divided than it has ever been at any other time in our history. In addition, Kibaki has identified himself as a champion for business but the current circumstances will see most of the business constituents suffering considerable losses which could lead to their reconsidering support for the president. Some sectors are already projecting significant losses, including total collapse of some the sectors. The Kibaki Government came in with the agenda of restoring international respectability for Kenya but the current situation has dented the country’s image almost beyond repair as the world watches horrific images emanating from the country on virtually every international media. Above all, this being Kibaki’s last term, however long that lasts, it is in Kibaki’s interest to leave the country on a firm footing for greater development as envisioned in Vision 2030 which PNU run on rather than have the dubious distinction of being the president who led Kenya to disintegration and failure. The case for negotiation for President Kibaki is predicated on how he wishes to fulfill the interests of his core constituent and the legacy he leaves behind. This has a very personal implication for the president. How this crisis is resolved could very well determine whether President Kibaki is able to live in this country after his exit from State House – and the timing of such exit.

On his part, Hon Raila Odinga also has a strong case to come to the negotiating table. He mobilized considerable resources from his financiers and backers on the promise of good governance but what we are seeing now cannot be described does not qualify as good governance in any shape or form. Hon Raila may argue that he does not hold the instruments of power to deal with the situation and that the responsibility lies with President Kibaki. However, Raila cannot altogether wash his hands off the situation and yet continue to claim legitimate leadership. In his final submission to voters, Raila was categorical about various things that “he will not do”. Key among these was the promise not to divide Kenyans on whatever basis. The current scenario is definitely one that a Raila government would not do. Raila needs to climb on the same platform and show Kenyans that indeed he will not watch as Kenya disintegrates along class, ethnic and political divides. He has a high stake and interests that need to be protected through a negotiated position.
Hon Raila promised the business community, including the Nairobi Stock Exchange that his leadership would not introduce a level of instability that would undermine the gains so far made. Hon Raila needs to come forward and demonstrate that he can stem the loss to the business community rather than exacerbate it in his singular pursuit of power.

Hon Raila also went to great lengths to allay the fears of the Kikuyu that they had nothing to fear in his leadership – this is not what is being experience on the ground and Hon Raila needs to come forward in a statesmanlike and presidential manner to demonstrate that, if indeed he is the legitimate leader he is, as confirmed by over 4m Kenyans, that he can use this popular mandate to stop the violence rather than being seen to be sacrificing the community in resolving the disagreement with President Kibaki. If his leadership credentials are to remain intact, Raila has a moral responsibility to stop the violence and contribute to restoring order in the country.

Hon Raila’s campaign was supported by many stakeholders who hoped to reap the benefits of good governance. Raila needs to participate in a negotiated settlement and be a participant in delivering the good governance he promised. This will enable his backers to reap the dividends they anticipated from his contribution to positive change in the country.

Ultimately, Raila’s campaign was run on a platform of ‘Transformative leadership’, a complete break with the poor governance that we have experienced since independence and which has resulted in the impoverishment of the bulk of the population. This promise resonated well with the population and in particular the youth and should be safeguarded if Hon Raila is to have claim to national leadership in future. As matters stand now, the country is quickly degenerating into a basket case and Raila or any other leader will not have a country to speak of that can be transformed. History will judge any of our present leaders very harshly if they are seen to have stood by as spectators as the country disintegrated. Depending on how he deals with the situation, Hon Raila could also find himself having to seek a new abode outside the country and may very well end up as Kibaki’s neighbour in some African country that is willing to receive both of them.

Hon Raila’s case for negotiation is predicated on the promise of transformation and real change as well the hope he offers the emerging generation and in particular the youth. These are the ones who have the highest stake, and therefore the most to lose from a disintegrated Kenya. This core constituent will demand that Raila actively engages in resolving the current crisis and put the country on a path to a positive future.

1.4 The pathways to, and consequences of failure

Each of the protagonists could maintain their hard-line position and this is a sure recipe for failure with far reaching consequences for them as individuals and for Kenya as a country.

President Kibaki and PNU’s position is that they won the election and anybody who is dissatisfied with the results should go to court. This position fails to recognize the anomalies in the election process which have been highlighted by various groups. It also fails to recognize that more than 50% of the voters did not vote for the president and that PNU has less than 25% of the parliamentary seats.

It appears that the President and PNU are confident that they can weather the current insecurity and vandalism – for that is what they see it as. Followed to its logical conclusion, this could mean that the president could cobble together a coalition government and continue to run the country in a ‘business-as-usual’ manner.
On Hon Raila’s and ODM’s part, their hard-line position is that they won the election and it was stolen from them. Their agenda now is to take back what is rightfully theirs and get President Kibaki to concede and somehow handover power to Raila and ODM. Short of this, ODM will continue with a protest campaign until the Kibaki Government gets to admit the injustice that has been committed against Kenyans or is forced out of office through mass action.

Raila and ODM’s position does not appear to take cognizance of the voting patterns – that again more than 50% of the population did not vote for Raila and that more than 50% of the parliamentary seats were won by other parties other than ODM.

If both camps maintain their hard-line positions, this is a recipe for failure. In order to understand how these hard-line positions could still prevail, we need to identify the key stakeholders on each side. On both sides of political divide, we have Kibaki/Raila at the top, there is the PNU top leadership or ODM Pentagon, key backers, and financiers whose main concern will be their interests - that the country is able to continue to run and that they can recoup the economic gains from the support they have provided to the campaign. This category is unlikely to accept any settlement that does not provide them the opportunity to reap the benefits of their support – and that means their man has to be on top, for this category it is all or nothing! However, if their man is not able to deliver, they may quickly ditch him and seek the next best alternative to deliver the gains that they seek. This is one of the sources of the real risk that both Kibaki and Raila may find themselves unwelcome in this country if they are unable to come to a negotiated settlement.

Then there are the newly elected parliamentarians who are torn between holding out until they can realize their expectations of positions in Government, or accelerating their swearing into parliament to enable them to replenish their exhausted finances. On the one hand this group could prolong the crisis but it is more likely that they may want a quicker settlement and one that does not require them to go through the election process again. This could encourage Kibaki to believe that he can form a coalition Government from a cross section of parliamentarians, especially since the new Politic Parties Act is not yet operational.

At the bottom of the pyramid on both sides of the divide are the citizens who are being used as pawns and facing the brunt of the crisis. For the civic aware, the resolution will require a commitment on both sides to build a robust political institutional framework that will guard against any future crisis. For ordinary citizens, their main quest is an improved quality of life and ironically, the crisis may present the bulk of the poor with the opportunity to access the resources they have been denied for so long. Whether it is through rent-seeking road blocks, looting or invasion of the properties of the rich – this could turn out to be a class crisis of such proportions than could ever have been envisaged by the protagonists.

If both sides of the divide dig in, President Kibaki could form a coalition Government with ODM Kenya and other smaller parties and use state might to overcome the resistance from ODM. This would prove to be a hugely unstable environment with little prospect of the economic gains expected by his core supporters. Ultimately, President Kibaki could end up impoverishing the country even more and the result would be his alienation even by his closest supporters. On this pathway, failure would mean that the country continues to suffer disruption, economic growth comes to a halt or even decline, and the country degenerates even further into chaos. President Kibaki would not last the full five-year term in State House and it may even be untenable for him to remain in the country. This scenario would cost all stakeholders on Kibaki’s side – him personally, his key backers and financiers, the members of parliament in his Government and ultimately the general population. The impact of such state failure would be far reaching and take considerable time to restore any semblance of normalcy.

On their part Raila and ODM could maintain their hard-line stance and continue with mass action to force Kibaki out of power. For such a strategy to succeed, Raila and ODM have to be prepared to continue to stretch the security forces on many fronts, including bringing the country to the brink of civil war, until they make the country so ungovernable that they create the opportunity to take over the presidency. Given the current situation, that could take anywhere between six to over 24 months. Business comes to a standstill and we have to go out begging for resources. This could also result on a strain on regional economies to a point of near collapse – however, our neighbors will not sit back and watch as their economies are damaged and raising new political and governance issues for their own countries. On its part, the international community will continue to be concerned as they shoulder some of the responsibilities for Kenya’s failure, including having to cater for large numbers of displaced people as well as the disruption in the regional economies, some of them still very fragile. This could result in sanctions against Kenya and being seen more as a pariah state.
The result of such a campaign could mean a number possible scenarios: short term success for Raila and ODM, but long-term failure for Kenya as the country we know today; long term failure for ODM and Kenya as a country; short-term failure for Kenya but long term success as the country is rebuilt on a more firm political foundation. The conviction by ODM that they could deliver this long-term success could result in a more drawn out conflict. However, the success of such a long drawn out campaign would depend on the appetite that the key backers, financiers and citizens have for extended losses and suffering. It is unlikely that any of these stakeholders would withstand extended hardships and they may very well turn against Raila and ODM. This could mean immediate failure for Raila and ODM as Kenyans take back the agenda. In such an eventuality, Raila may also find his stay in the country becomes untenable.

1.5 Possible negotiation agenda

Once the protagonists are convinced to come to the negotiating table, the following could form part of the negotiation agenda:

1. Beginning the national healing - bring an end to the violence – cooperative effort by all parties including bringing on board the post-serious incident therapy professionals.
2. Trust and confidence building measures for the political players need to be instituted
3. Election closure
4. Composition and duration of an Interim Government/ Government of National Unity.
5. Priority agenda for the Interim Government/ Government of National Unity (take account of some of the key issues that have accentuated divisions);
6. Administrative, legal and constitutional reforms before the next election;
7. Presidential or National Elections after Interim/ GNU
8. Global agenda to restore international respectability

1.6 Post-crisis negotiated scenario – a new dawn

If handled with sobriety and enlightened leadership, Kenya can still emerge from the current situation as a strong nation that has its pride of place among nations of the world. We can all return to one common purpose, one that unites us together in the development of our nation:

To earn and uphold our pride of place among nations as a sovereign and remarkable country of outstanding people enjoying a high quality of life

The Kenya that emerges from the present circumstances could be thus described:

• To earn and uphold our pride of place among nations: We are competitive; We have a vision of where we want to be; all our efforts are focused on that vision; We are proudly Kenyan. This pride of place is ‘earned’, we have put specific effort to win it.
• Kenya as a sovereign country: We are patriotic and proud to be Kenyan. We govern ourselves and safeguard our territorial integrity
• Kenya as a remarkable country: we welcome all to celebrate our natural endowment; we are well-governed; we achieve amazing results despite the challenges have faced and continue to encounter; we deliver remarkable investment returns; We will be known for high standards and diligence globally; we will be talked of because of what we have achieved, because of our level of discipline and respect for the rule of law, because everything works!
• Outstanding people: our diversity is our strength and wealth; our culture and values stand out; we have well developed human resource, and place a premium on innovativeness; our people are recognized for excellence in whatever we do, wherever we are in the world.
• High quality of life: justice and equity, majority live in ‘Maslow’s’ third tier; we welcome all well-meaning citizens of the world to come and enjoy this quality of life.

The major hallmarks on the new Kenya would be:

1. Democracy thrives
2. Respect for the rule of law
3. A robust political institutional framework
4. Economic growth and improved quality of life
5. Regional and International respectability.

1.7 Sharing and dissemination

This framework will be reviewed and amended by the group before a final version is agreed and signed off. The signed off version will then be presented to major actors including:

• The key protagonists;
• Other political actors
• Civil Society
• Business and professional associations
• The Media
• International development partners

It is hoped that the framework would be widely discussed and guide the path to reconciliation and healing from the present circumstances. We remain positive and hopeful that Kenya has the wherewithal to competently manage the present crisis and emerge a stronger nation.

What happened in Kenya?!

I posted this on Jesp's blog, then I realized I had gone on and on so I thought I would post it here (and bore the rest of you as well). Lucky you.

To rehash an overused simile the troubles in Kenya are like an iceberg. What the world saw -- people supposedly rioting because of a flawed election -- is but the tip. As most Tanzanians will tell you (and me and everyone else) we Kenyans been pretty challenged when it comes to trying to forge an national identity over a tribal one. (As with any family the only exception to this is when there is an external threat e.g. Osama's 1998 bombing.)

No matter what politicians say this emphasis on tribe is promoted by them because it suits their interests. Our leaders have traditionally been very corrupt and the most of the patronage/largess has been typically bestowed on their ethnic communities to ensure a solid core of support, so the losing community saw this as a "missed opportunity to eat" at the corruption trough.

To further exacerbate things there is the Gikuyu issue. The Gikuyu (frequently referred to as Kikuyu) don't have much land around their traditional Central Kenya area so they have migrated to other less densely populated areas. Much of this migration has been subsidized by Gikuyu lead governments at the expense of other communities.

In the build up to the elections the opposition -- primarily Raila and Ruto -- stoked these sentiments of Gikuyu domination in their supporters. So after the results were announced the opposition publicly cried foul and claimed that Kibaki had "stolen the election" and that set off an unfortunate series of barbaric ethnic-cleansing type acts. It was a powder keg waiting to explode, and explode it did.

I am confident that Kenya will not descend into a Rwandaesque situation. This is all about poverty, resources and equity. If we build our institutions and address corruption and inequity much of this will go away. We are a resourceful people and we will find a Kenyan solution to this very Kenyan problem. Kenya will emerge stronger for it. But that will be hard work and there are many powerful people who are benefiting from the status quo who will want to keep things the way they are.

I think I have talked for too long.

-Silaha

Kenya Troubles -- A View From Kibera

Africa Expat Wife is a "35 year old housewife who does no housework" based in Nairobi, she has written the story of her former askari

Thursday, January 03, 2008 Our ex night watchman in Kibera slum

We spoke to our ex night watchman on the phone today. He lives in Kibera slum and we have been informally sponsoring him for a couple of years. Having lost all his belongings in the crisis (see previous post), he has been stuck inside his home for some days. A neighbor has lent him a mattress and they have enough flour for only one more meal tonight.

He fears going out of his home, as all Kibera residents are being challenged over which tribe they belong to by the agitated mob. He does not want to get involved in any violence, so has been too afraid to venture out for the last four days.

Tuesday, January 08, 2008 Our ex-askari paid us a visit from Kibera today

Our ex–night watchman who lives in Kibera slum, managed to get out for long enough to come and see us at home today. He described the situation there in plain terms and it still seems to be a hell of a mess (unsurprisingly).

His house was looted when he went out looking for food and his children were alone in the house. They stood aside whilst looters took everything they could carry: clothes, shoes, mattresses, sheets, food, cups, plates, saucepans, flasks and a paraffin stove.

He said that the victims of violent attacks in Kibera since the election were made up of four tribes; Nubian, Meru, Kikuyu and Kamba. Their businesses and houses have been burned, many have been raped (two of his Kikuyu neighbors were raped and are now in a Women’s hospital, but men have been raped too). There are now no kiosks left to sell food in Kibera and each time our friend ventured out of the slum for supplies, he was turned back by police who blocked anyone from leaving Kibera on the assumption that they were on their way to one or other of the ODM rallies supposed to take place in the town center.

Many areas where there were once kiosks have been decimated; ‘now there are parts of Kibera that just look like a field, there's nothing.’ The second hand market called ‘Toi Market’ on the outskirts of Kibera (where I have shopped for mitumba clothes many times), has also been burned to the ground.

I asked about the Red Cross food donations and he said that he has seen a Red Cross truck delivering supplies twice, once today and once yesterday. ‘The problem is that people crush around the vehicle, even before it has stopped, preventing anything from being distributed fairly. The Luos get first pick.’

I asked how old the violent protesters in the slum were and he replied; ‘They are very young boys, all boys, most of them between 15 and 23 years old. I can’t understand them; it is as if they have gone mad and they don’t understand that the people they are fighting for are comfortable and not at risk. I don’t know why they are doing this; they have spoiled Kibera for everyone.’

We gave him a mattress, plates, cups, mugs, thermos flasks and money but he explained: ‘I cannot bring too much into Kibera at once. If I carry two mattresses and lots of bags then people will believe I have been given them by the Government, and I will be attacked.’

He squirreled the cups etc. into a small backpack and made an arrangement to pick up a second mattress and some clothes from my husband’s office tomorrow. He said he thanks God that his family are all safe and as i gave him a lift back to near the slum he added; ‘Many people won’t help us at home, or even give us a shilling because they know we are HIV positive and they think we will just die soon. They don’t understand that we have already been living with this illness for 15 years and then you think of all those who died in the violence last week, who had probably had no HIV and were not expecting to die? You never know what is going to happen but we pray for ourselves and our future.’

Gazing Into A Crystal Ball...Or The Next 5 Years

Kibaki has named "half" his cabinet. Mmm... I guess that now that the killing has stopped we’re into a political chess game. And it appears that Kibaki's shrewd moves are giving him the upper hand. I must say that when I first heard the announcement this morning my reaction was sheer disbelief then I read his "half a cabinet" speech and I realized that instead of slamming the door shut, Kibaki has Raila exactly where he wants him.

If I were to look in my ‘crystal ball’ I would say that this fiasco will be resolved by the implementing of the 2002 MOU where Kibaki will continue as President and Raila will join the Cabinet as Prime Minister. I would not have wished for these troubles in a 1,000 years but I think we can all learn from them. I know that our astute politicians will have realized now what Mboya, Kenyatta and Odinga knew in the early 60s--that the Luo and Gikuyu together are a formidable force — and we’ve all learned this week (as we did in 1969) that when the two communities are on opposing sides we have bloodletting and chaos. I see Raila and Uhuru forming a partnership that will propel Raila to presidency in 2012. (The scions of our first Pres/VP in reversed roles.)

Kibaki is playing all of us like fools because we underestimate him, because we're driven by the heart when he is shrewd and calculating. In a game theoretic sense Kibaki is giving us all a lesson in strategy.

Every so often I like to just write in a stream-of-consciousness fashion. I call this my crystal ball. Here are my crystal ball's predictions for the next 5 years.

• Kibaki will remain President, but true to his nature, he will assume a more non-executive role, akin to a Chairman of the Board (maybe he'll take up golf again).
  
• Kalonzo will remain VP but increasingly there will be succession tension between Kalonzo, Raila and Uhuru. Saitoti will fall by the wayside.
• Raila will join the Cabinet as Prime Minister (or if that is constitutionally impossible as de facto PM). He will be the most powerful minister in Kenya's history, in effect our CEO, and will do a good job.
• The losers in the Pentagon will be Ruto and Nyagah. Nyagah is expendable in a GNU, I mean it's not like we really need more GEMA folks in Cabinet. Ruto is unpalatable after the mess in Eldoret.
• The other Pentagon members Ngilu, Balala and Mudavadi will have senior roles. Ngilu will probably return as Health minister.
• A Kalenjin woman, probably Sally Kosgei, will have a very senior ministerial role, and will be a consigliere (in the best sense of the word) to Raila and Kibaki but will likely not get along with Kalonzo
• For the next 3-3.5 years we will have cohesive development focused government that will emphasize healing and the bringing together of communities.
• After 3.5-4 years the posturing for the next election will begin and the alliances will break down which will likely result in the calling of early elections.
• Our next president (after Kibaki) will not be Gikuyu but will be "made" the by the GEMA community. i.e. s/he who courts this block most successfully will win. Consequently Uhuru will be courted aggressively and will likely be the VP after 2012, and will increasingly be seen as the next "king maker". I see Raila, because of the lessons he learned from this debacle, likely to eclipse Kalonzo as the front runner.
• While the establishment politicians are doing their thing a stealth star will emerge who does not come from the existing power structures. I have no idea who this will be but his/her popularity with the wananchi will not sit well with the establishment, and they will (attempt to) get rid of him/her. Hopefully it won't be an assassination but I would not put anything past these folks.
• Kenya will struggle for the next year and a half but will be roaring again come 2012. The most acute problems in the near term will come as a result of reduced output in North Rift caused by the recent problems. Growth in the 2009-10 period will be driven by a housing and consumption boom in Central Province. The 250K people sent home from RVP to Central will cause this shift.
• There will be a surge in violent crime in Central & Nairobi in the short term.
• The GEMA community significantly reduce their investment outside of Nairobi, Mombasa and Central Kenya (Central Province, Nakuru, Laikipia, & Southern Eastern Province -- Meru/Embu/Ukambani).
• In the short run there will be a regrettable backlash against employing Kalenjins and possibly Luos in GEMA owned businesses, which will further exacerbate the tensions.
  
• At least one big kahuna from each of the Moi and the Kibaki 1 administrations will be convicted of grand corruption.
• With the exception of a few 'tokens' e.g. Sally Kosgei (see above) the Kalenjin community will be the big losers in this power game (and also the GEMA folks currently in ODM).
  

I think that's a little more than two-cents worth this time.

-Silah

In Praise of Mutahi Ngunyi

I must say, sheepishly, that I had not really read or listened to Mutahi Ngunyi's words until this week. I came across him on the IMSKenya video recorded a day after Kivuitu announced the election results. I was impressed by his insight so I decided to google him and see what else he has said.

(These three samples are the first three that I came across, wow, simply wow.)

His prescience is eerily scary. I cannot really add much to his words but I want you all to read his words and think about it in the context of the events of the last few weeks. The only thing I will say is that he has a stellar political mind, clearly a mind that I would want on my side if I was a politician.

April 30th, 2006, referring to the Referendum

If ODM wanted to ‘win’, they should have planned to ‘lose’. And if they had ‘lost’, this country would be in a different place today. The uprising against Kibaki and the only province that voted ‘Yes’ would have been overwhelming.

...

Is ODM unity against Kibaki necessary? The answer to this question is a resounding no! … This unity is ‘anti-hegemonic’ and not ‘counter-hegemonic’. Its underlying ideology is anti-Kikuyuism, and not counter-Kikuyuism. This has driven even the most progressive Kikuyus into regimenting around Kibaki. And why this is dangerous is because of what we call the tyranny of numbers.

If you drive the Kikuyus against you in an election, their numbers will frustrate you. With the magic of incumbency, all Kibaki needs is an alliance with a small tribe and he has the election bagged. This is why an alliance between him and Kalonzo Musyoka would be sexy.

Now to my second point and why a ‘divided’ ODM is good strategy. In the theory of war, there are two ways of fighting an enemy. You can either confront him head on or surround him. The first method is conventional, while the second is what we call the war of detachment.

While conventional war has provision for coffee and lunch breaks, the war of detachment has no rules, no protocol, just surprises. And this is how ODM should deal with Kibaki in the coming election.

More specifically, they should force a run-off by sponsoring a presidential candidate in every province. The intention here is to surround Kibaki by denying him the mandatory 25 per cent in five provinces. This process should also be used to select the real ODM candidate to take on Kibaki in a run-off.

In other words, and this is my submission here, the only chance a united ODM has of beating Kibaki is in a run-off. Unity in any other context is part of the old revolution and wont wash.

Back to Kibaki. After much reflection, I have had to eat humble pie and admit that he is of a superior mind. I say so because there is method to the ‘madness’ of his regime. From the referendum to Anglo Leasing, there is a pattern to every goof. I am even beginning to entertain the thought that Kibaki was never quite sick. And if he was sick at all, it became part of his strategy to seduce the nation with this weakness.

...

Where am I going with this? I have two points. One, like it or not, Kibaki has us where he wants us. Two, he does not mind being underestimated. We underestimated Moi for years before we finally accepted that he was a ‘professor of politics’. When you underestimate your enemy, they can only surprise you.

And that is why we need to figure Kibaki out and do it fast. As we do so, we must then ask the following questions: If this man was recruited into politics by the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, is it possible that he learnt nothing from this guru? Could he have learnt nothing from such sophisticated peers as the late TJ Mboya with whom they ‘invented’ the Kenyan version of African socialism? Were the 15 years he spent under the stewardship of the late Jomo Kenyatta wasted? How about the 10 years of bullying as Moi’s Vice-President and the 11 years in the cold benches of opposition politics? Was the man asleep in class? I doubt it. Or what do you think Mr Raila Odinga?

August 29th, 2007

[Moi’s endorsement of Kibaki] could work against Kibaki’s re-election. Moi has endorsed Kibaki for his own political insurance and not because he likes Kibaki as a president. ODM will get support in the Rift Valley.

November 18th, 2007

This is a letter to Mr Raila Odinga:

...

You, my brother, are like the Energiser Battery. No fear, no limits, just energy. Keep going bro!

However, I must warn you that this unlimited energy is also your main handicap.

Two, I write to you to convey a message from a young fan of yours in Tanzania. I met this fishmonger in Nancio, the capital city of a small island called Ukerewe on Tanzania side of Lake Victoria. The young fellow was worried that you might botch it between now and December 27. He sent me with this warning to you sir, "… fish begins to rot from the head". His point? If ODM does not win, it will be because of Raila Amolo Odinga.

My third reason is based on nothing. It is just a hunch. Sir, Kibaki will not win this election. You will lose. My hunch is that your lack of inhibitions will result in a fatal error. This will not be a common error. It will be a dosage of fate, administered by the gods. This, sir, is your destiny. But you can change it. Before I make my case on how to avoid it, I have to give you the story of a chap called Sisyphea recorded in Greek mythology. My intention is to illustrate the gravity of your impending fate. My hope is that you will avoid it.

This guy offended the gods and he had to be punished. He was condemned to rolling a huge log up a steep hill. But before he could tip it over to the other side of the hill, something would happen. A few metres to the tip, Sisyphea would run into a ‘fatal error’. Instead of tipping the log over to the other side, it would roll back to the bottom, where he would start pushing it up the hill again.

You, sir, are where Sisyphea was. You have already rolled the log up the hill. All you need now is to tip it over on December 27 and become King. But the question is this: will you do something foolish between now and then? Will you commit the Sisyphus error, and let the log roll back to the bottom of the hill? My hunch is that this is where you are headed. But you can avoid it.

Sir, your ‘fatal error’ will come from one of two blind spots. The first one is your political mouth. You talk too much. My counsel to you is, whenever you get an opportunity to shut up, grab it with dear life. I’m compelled to say so by only one reason –– whenever you open your political mouth, you show a double personality. Of the two Railas, ‘Raila One’ is vengeful, ruffian and bad. ‘Raila Two’ is winsome, forgiving and charming. Between now and December 27, you must, therefore, hide your ‘tail’ and show us your good side only. Can you do that?

Your second fatal error will come from the Rift Valley. If you become King, it will be because the Kalenjins said so. Of the ODM vote, 50 per cent is Kalenjin. In other words, they have 50 per cent share in ODM. They are not voting for Raila: they are voting against President Kibaki. It is a protest vote.

Similarly, they have gleefully settled on the idea of William Ruto becoming president in 2027, after you and Musalia Mudavadi. Sir, this kind of high sacrifice does not make sense in politics. My conclusion? The Kalenjins are deeply wounded by Kibaki.

My counsel to you is this: Keep them hostage to the anger against Kibaki. Their wounds must not heal, and they must not break away from the anger spell. This is important because, apart from the anger, they have nothing else against Kibaki.

Majimboism & Tribal Clashes

Hot Issues of the 2007 Elections in Kenya: Majimboism is a Time Bomb!:

Though they will not publicly accept it, almost all the political parties in Kenya are made up of powerful tribal leaders who command immense despotic powers in the areas of their origin. Indeed the genesis of ODM was an open tribal meeting between Luo, Luhya and Kalenjin elders representing Raila Odinga , Musalia Mudavadi and William Ruto who agreed to cooperate in order to snatch political power from the people from Mount Kenya region. The idea of Majimboism is popularized by the notion that it will encourage the distribution of the national cake more equitably throughout the country, as opposed to the perception that the present day government financially benefits a small Mount Kenya group of tycoons close to Mwai Kibaki, more than it benefits the people outside the Central Province.

When thinking of economic benefits that can come out of Majimboism, as it is preached by the ODM, many Kenyans support the policy; but when they think of tribal clashes that could possibly originate from the same policy, they don’t want to touch it with a barge pole. The success or failure of Majimboism as a policy in Kenya will depend entirely on the manner in which its two conflicting interpretations are delivered to the people. So far all sorts of propaganda are spread by both camps and the powerful Catholic Church has openly decided to condemn it.

Those words were written last October by Joe Kadhi a veteran Kenyan journalist and Professor at USIU in Nairobi. Yesterday he added these words

The country is torn between ODM and PNU followers ready to die for their political parties without caring much about the fact that none of the two are more than personal properties of Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki.

It is interesting to investigate the link, if any, between the Majimboism (Federalism) debate, with the associated rhetoric of resources being taken from non-GEMA communities to the center, and the clashes that erupted after the voting. Many people, and entire communities, feel that the getting into Statehouse gives communities exclusive, or at least, priority access to the feeding trough -- where they literally take food from the mouths of poor Kenyans -- including from their own communities. This opinion has been reinforced in the blogosphere this week when many Kenyans from various communities have asked "when will it be our time to eat."

Now I am a firm believer in devolution, in fact, I am a believer in Federalism. I think that government services should be performed by government that is close to the people and the central government should only take those responsibilities that are best handled at a macro level, for instance, defense and foreign affairs. I will even go so far as to say that I am somewhat enamored by the American concept of enumerated powers where functions that are not expressly ceded to the Federal Government should be performed by state governments.

That said no government should ever infringe on fundamental rights of citizens (and non-citizens too). We all have a right to live, work and own property anywhere in the Republic. In the event that a local or regional government (or thugs wielding bows and arrows made in South Korea) ever attempts to deny these civil rights to any citizen or group of citizens then I believe that everybody else (Center and other states) should do everything within their legal power to put an immediate end to that action. This to me is more fundamental, more important than any devolution or Majimboism.

So when I hear myself think and say that I will never live or own property outside of Nairobi or my own ethnic homeland, I feel sorry for our country and think of what we have lost.

NY Times: Kenya’s Privileged Tribe is on the Run

Kenya Kikuyus, Long Dominant, Are Now Routed - New York Times

There is a story on the cover of today's New York Times about the mass exodus of the Agikuyu from the Rift Valley. It is a pretty good article that talks about how land is at the root of the fracas and how the Gikuyu were favored when the Kenyatta administration used British funds to reacquire land from white settlers.

I must underscore the importance of this article. African countries rarely make it to the front page of the NYT. For a story about an ethnic group in Kenya to make it is not trivial.

Here are is the article...

January 7, 2008
Kenya Kikuyus, Long Dominant, Are Now Routed
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN

NAKURU, Kenya — Kenya’s privileged tribe is on the run.

Over the past few days, tens of thousands of Kikuyus, the tribe of Kenya’s president, have packed into heavily guarded buses to flee the western part of the country because of ethnic violence. On Sunday, endless convoys of buses — some with their windshields smashed by rocks — crawled across a landscape of scorched homes and empty farms.

It is nothing short of a mass exodus. The tribe that has dominated business and politics in Kenya since independence in 1963 is now being chased off its land by machete-wielding mobs made up of members of other tribes furious about the Dec. 27 election, which Kenya’s president, Mwai Kibaki, won under dubious circumstances. In some places, Kikuyus have been hunted down with bows and arrows.

The hospital in Nakuru, a town in the Rift Valley, is full of Kikuyu men with deep ax wounds, fingers cut off and slash marks across their faces.

“It was the Kalenjin,” said Samuel Mburu, a Kikuyu farmer with rows of stitches in his head, when asked who had nearly killed him. The Kalenjin are one of the bigger tribes in the Rift Valley, and they have fought fiercely with the Kikuyus before, mostly over land.

Many Kalenjin are unapologetic. Robert Tutuny, a Kalenjin farmer, stood on a hillside on Sunday with an iron bar in his hands and looked down at the charred remains of a Kikuyu village that was razed a week ago.

“We hate these people,” Mr. Tutuny said.

The election — and the unresolved battle about who won — has ignited old tensions in Kenya, which in a week and a half has gone from being one of Africa’s most promising countries to another equatorial trouble zone.

The political impasse continued Sunday, with Jendayi E. Frazer, the American assistant secretary of state for African affairs, meeting again with opposition leaders and government officials, but no resolution was in sight.

The heavy fighting that claimed more than 300 lives last week has subsided and many people have gone back to work in the capital, Nairobi. There, people from different tribes live side by side and often work in the same office. They are aware of ethnic differences and sometimes joke about them, but it usually does not go further than that.

But out here — where little towns rise from the veld like mirages and where there is so much wide-open space it seems incongruous to fight over land — these differences matter. A tribal war is shaping up between the Kalenjin, who mostly support Kenya’s opposition leaders, and the Kikuyus, who voted heavily — up to 98 percent in some areas — for the president.

Tens of thousands of Kikuyus are camped out at police stations and churches for protection, waiting for buses guarded by military escorts to evacuate them to the central highlands, the traditional Kikuyu homeland. There, amid the lush tea fields and rolling green hills, they are safe because almost everyone who lives in the highlands is Kikuyu.

Ethnic conflict is now threatening the decades of stability that has set Kenya apart from so many of its neighbors, like Congo, Rwanda, Somalia and Sudan. But Kenya has struggled with ethnic violence before. Its rare bursts usually come around election time.

“You have to understand that these issues are much deeper than ethnic,” said Maina Kiai, chairman of the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights.

“They are political,” he said, and “they go back to land.”

The last time the Rift Valley was this violent was in 1992, another election year in Kenya and a time of turbulent transition between dictatorship and democracy. Kalenjin militias, stirred up by politicians who told them that the valley was Kalenjin ancestral land, massacred hundreds of Kikuyus in a bid to steal their farms.

Since then, Mr. Kiai said, “Emotions have been festering, resentments have been building and we sat around pretending ethnicity didn’t exist.”

Kenya has more than 40 tribes, but the Kikuyus have almost always been on top. They run shops, restaurants, banks and factories across the country. One reason Mr. Kibaki has engendered so much resentment from other tribes is because many of the top officials in his government — including the ministers of defense, justice, finance and internal security — are Kikuyus.

The Kikuyus are the biggest tribe in Kenya but far from a majority, at 22 percent of the population. The Kalenjins make up about 12 percent.

In the Rift Valley, the anti-Kikuyu grudge goes back to independence, when the British government bought out Britons who owned huge, picturesque farms. But instead of redistributing that land to the impoverished people who had lived here for centuries, like the Kalenjin and Masai, the newly formed Kenyan government, led by Jomo Kenyatta, a Kikuyu, gave much of it to Kikuyus from other areas.

Most of the Kikuyus here are hardly rich. The men lying on bloody sheets at the Nakuru hospital are emaciated farmers with threadbare clothes. The same goes for the Kikuyus who have been slaughtered by gangs of opposing tribes in Nairobi’s slums, causing an exodus from there, too. They lived in iron shanties just as their non-Kikuyu neighbors do.

But in many cases, the Kikuyus own kiosks or small patches of land or they are related to someone who does, and that makes them a little better off by local standards.

“Land is very important to us,” said Anthony Kirunga, a Kikuyu, who sells spare car parts in Nakuru. “It’s not our fault that other people are jealous.”

This election stirred up anti-Kikuyu jealousies like never before. Raila Odinga, the top opposition candidate and a member of the Luo tribe, built his campaign on a promise to end Kikuyu favoritism and share the fruits of Kenya’s growing economy with all tribes.

Early election results had him way ahead and his party winning the most seats in Parliament. But at the 11th hour of the vote-tallying process last Sunday, Mr. Kibaki surged. Election observers have said the president’s party rigged the results to stay in power.

Millions of opposition supporters across Kenya were outraged. Not only did their candidate lose, but it also seemed to them that their system, which until the election had been celebrated as one of the most vibrant democracies in Africa, had cheated them.

In western Kenya, where Kikuyus are vastly outnumbered, they became easy targets. In Kisumu, the third-largest city in the country, Luos went on a rampage, burning down Kikuyu shops and ransacking the downtown.

In the Rift Valley, Kalenjin gangs stormed Kikuyu farms. Police officers seemed reluctant to intervene. Dozens of Kikuyus were massacred, including up to 50 women and children hiding in a church who were burned alive. What has kept the death toll from rising even higher is the fact that few people here have guns; most of the clashes have been fought with clubs, knives and stones.

Jeremiah Mukuna, 75, a Kikuyu farmer, was attacked by a Kalenjin mob last Monday while he was sitting on the porch of his shack, his family said. His head was split open with an ax. On Sunday, he lay in a coma in the Nakuru hospital, taking short, shallow breaths.

His wife, Grace, said she was leaving the Rift Valley.

“I will never come back,” she said.