Monday, March 11, 2013

Post election musings

Musings rattling around in my brain after a pretty intense week:

  1. How can the IEBC, which was responsible for tallying the votes, be the arbiter of whether the election was "free and fair"?
  2. Did the media, "especially the local media", abdicate from its responsibility to protect public interest as the "fourth estate"?*
  3. Why is it near impossible to get voting data at the polling station level in spreadsheet/database format to allow all interested persons to form their own opinions about fairness or otherwise?
  4. After a long 20+ year struggle to get a new constitution with enshrined rights, why is CORD being maligned for exercising its right to seek legal redress?*
  5. If the court finds that the IEBC carried out a flawed election/tallying and orders a new election or a runoff, will the IEBC be "independent" enough to manage the subsequent vote?*
  6. When looking at the voting patterns and how regions voted almost to a person for ethnic godfathers, have we arrived at defacto 'majimboism'?
  7. Why the frequent reference to "God"? If Uhuru is elected by "God's will" what does that implicitly say about the other seven candidates?
  8. Ensuring this is ends up without doubt a truly free and fair election is in the interest of the Kenyan citizen and not necessarily in that of Raila or CORD.
  9. It is irrelevant whether or not CORD will be able to bridge the gap in any possible run off, the election had rules and should be adjudicated by those rules. Now is not the time to discuss the costs of a runoff, that should have been done at the time of the drafting of the constitution (an instant runoff voting arrangement would have been preferable in my opinion).

* credit to others in social media

Tuesday, March 05, 2013

Calling The Election

OK folks, don't eat me alive (or do backflips)... 

I have been playing with data (I love data) from the Mars website, and it appears to me that with these three critical assumptions -- 
(1) that the provisional results reported are accurate, 
(2) that the county results reported are representative of the county as a whole, and 
(3) that the turn out in all counties is the same, then:

The worst Uhuru could end up with is 50.28% and the best Raila could end up with is 45.70%. Wow, UK has clearly won this election, but I would posit that it is too close to call it in the first round (any one or more of my assumptions may be off).

I used the confidence interval of proportions... Happy to share the spreadsheet, perhaps my statistics are not spot on, but seems clear to me.

Here's how I calculated it.
  1. I downloaded the provisional results from the Mars website.  
  2. I calculated the proportion of votes that UK, Musalia and RAO had in each county.
  3. I then calculated the confidence interval of error for proportions from here and calculated the worst Uhuru could do per county and the best that Raila could do in the same county.
  4. I multiplied those numbers by the numbers of registered voters and simply summed down.
Here is the file...

Comments, thoughts

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

What Exactly Is Annan Brokering?

One of the things that has perennially bothered me about the way we do things in Kenya is that we seem to have a horizon of only about a week and a half. Kibaki's reneging on the MOU was probably about the most short sighted thing I ever saw -- did he think that he would be in power for ever. On the other hand, Raila's campaign to overturn the proposed constitution which -- and I did read it myself -- was far superior to our current constitution, was based primarily on trying to prove a point to Kibaki (which he did).

I worry that Kofi and the deal negotiated at Serena/Mt. Kenya Safari Club Kilaguni will focus only on what we need to do to resolve this crisis and not work to put in place a solution for the ages.

There is a day after the day after tomorrow.


Saturday, February 09, 2008

Jirongo Again, How Can We Recognize This Surprising Hero?

I am a sporadic blogger at best. I only write when I feel that I have something to say. So my apologies to you folks who regularly visit to see if I have anything new to share.

I recently posted about Cyrus Jirongo's amazing and exemplary behavior in actively dissuading his constituents from hating on the Gikuyu in their area. That one posting has resulted in the most hits to my blog to date. Clearly Kenyans are earning to read about their compatriots who are making a difference in a positive sense. Enough about Kibaki and Raila! This has now become about Wanjiku and Onyango, and those wazees are not looking out for their interests.

Anyway... it seems that as I search for more positive stories about the goings on back home I keep coming back to Jirongo (who quite frankly I did not think very highly of prior to this year -- I mean, YK-92 is not exactly a great resume builder!) Here's the latest Jirongo-bite. (From here.)

In November of last year, I lent my son-in-law, Job, (Beverly's husband) the funds to buy a motorcycle so that he could go into the motor cycle taxi business. By now I know a lot about the motorcycle taxi business which in calmer times I might describe. There are 58 motorcycles and 67 motorcycle drivers and he has been elected chair of the motorcycle taxi drivers association in Lumakanda. He said that all the motorcycle taxi drivers stayed out of the violence, partly because they were charging double for rides and thus making a good income. Also the winning MP from this area, Cyrus Jirongo, had met with the drivers and told them not to participate in any tribal violence due to the election. According to Job, most of the bicycle taxi drivers also stayed out of the looting, but of course in terms of class, a motorcycle taxi driver is far above a bicycle taxi driver.

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Another MP Shot Dead...

This just in...

Ainamoi MP David Kimutai Too has been shot dead by a traffic policeman in West Indies estate in Eldoret.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Jirongo On A Bicycle: An Example For Us All

Cyrus Jirongo has been setting a great example for all our leaders. Read these two stories and ask yourself why your MP has not been demonstrating such exemplary leadership.

This has been going around in email.
In the midst of the hopelessness that we have watched helplessly, there are rays of hope.

This morning at a meeting, a friend who is Kikuyu but was born and brought up in Lugari (an area where the Kalenjin and several dialects of Luhya are dominant and borders Eldoret), shared with
us a story that I wish could be heard on national radio and TV as we have only been treated to the negative aspects.

After the major eruption of violence on Dec 30, his mother’s two buildings including the granary with the year’s produce was burned and her 8 cattle and 20 goats stolen. This was horrifying as she had always been assimilated into that community even though she is of a diffrent tribe.

Their local MP, Hon. Cyrus Jirongo who was voted in the small KADDU party, however decided to give leadership to his constituents. He put away his limousine and rode a bicycle to every village speaking to the people and showing them the folly of what they had done. They took the cue! They invited back the Kikuyu lady (as well as others who had been chased away) and different members of the community, in remorse and as a sign of their repentance, who are mainly peasant farmers took from their own produce and animals and restored what the lady had lost!

This is the only way for Kenya to heal back into a nation afre the divisions we have seen! We need more of these kinds of transformational leaders! Pray for more....!

It is such things that make one believe in Kenya, its leaders, and ultimately, in its people. As I see it, WE are all we have!

A few weeks ago there was another story on Jirongo in the Standard.
Lugari MP-elect Mr Cyrus Jirongo intervened to avert bloodshed in his constituency.

He dissuaded enraged youths out on a revenge mission on Saturday.

Jirongo, who had just addressed a peace rally at Lumakanda township, was on his way to Eldoret when his entourage ran into hundreds of people chanting war songs.

The Kaddu chairman alighted from his vehicle and began talking to the rowdy group to abandon its mission.

The move, at first, did not go down well with a section of them.

"Please I am begging you to go back to your homes. I am your MP and I promise to address all your grievances later but not in a charged atmosphere like the one we are in," pleaded Jirongo.

The MP confronted a group of young men, who were wielding machetes and took away their weapons. He warned them against harming anyone.

He pledged to establish a common fund that will assist victims of the recent skirmishes.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Luos Must Go, We Don't Need Them I Am Convinced Of That

I worry that voices of moderation are disappearing as this crisis drags on. Here is a log of an instant message chat I had with a Gikuyu colleague of mine who is in Kenya. He is truly a progressive moderate -- or at least he was until December 30, 2007.

When I read this I worry and I fear for our country. Where have all the sane people gone?

HIM: Luos must go.
ME: Nonsense.
HIM: We don’t need them I am convinced of that.
ME: You should not say that, we do need them. They are as Kenyan as the Gikuyu.
HIM: We are as Kenyan as them.
ME: True, but the Gikuyu did steal this election. No doubt.
HIM: But the truth is the Gikuyu manage resources better than they do. They stole also.
ME: There is no evidence of that.
HIM: We are all thieves but we make better thieves.

(I read online about Mugabe Were’s murder)

ME: Oh dear, taabu, why did they kill Were.
HIM: I don't know.
ME: This thing is getting out of control.
HIM: I tell you.
ME: The Gikuyu mobs in Naivasha, Nakuru and Huruma, who is controlling them?
HIM: We are financing them.
ME: Why, why, why? Self defense I can understand, but burning helpless people in their homes is not right.
HIM: It’s for self defense.
ME: Nonsense, the killing of unarmed women and children huddled in a house in fear is not self defense.
HIM: They wanted to make a point which they have made.
ME: Sawa, then the Gikuyu need to have many kids otherwise in a generation or two they will be wiped out by the some other tribe.
HIM: Hence the self defense.
ME: No. You cannot kill me today because someone of my ethnicity may or may not kill you 10 or 50 years from now.

If Kibaki Is A Demon Are Raila & Ruto Saints?

I am astounded that so many people in the blogosphere are steadfastly holding to the claim that Kibaki is solely responsible for all that has befallen Kenya since December 27th. I find that a naive and simply untenable view.

Gikuyu were going to die in North Rift irrespective of the outcome of the election. How on earth can Kibaki be responsible for the arming and organizing of these Kalenjin thugs? Why are we not holding Ruto responsible for his actions, or at the very least those of his people?

You know what, maybe these folks are right. Maybe we should charge Kibaki for the killing of the women and children in that church in Eldoret. We should charge him for organizing the destruction of Kisumu and the burning of Kibera. We should hold him culpable for the riots in Likoni and elsewhere. And lest we forget the atrocious burning of terrified residents in Naivasha is his doing too.

We should similarly hold Kibaki responsible for all acts of election malfeasance including those in his favor and those against. He should be held responsible for all those Gikuyu voters in North Rift who were not allowed to get to their polling stations. The amazing >100% turnout in Nyanza and Western are clearly have his paw prints all over them.

While Kibaki's trials are ongoing, I suggest we nominate William Ruto for the Nobel Peace Prize for going above and beyond the call of duty in ensuring that the situation in North Rift did not get out of hand. Clearly his speech in Eldoret this weekend was timely and just what the country needed.

And lest we forget, Raila Amolo Odinga should get the MLK Freedom Award (that recognizes residents dedicated to promoting justice, peace, freedom, nonviolence and racial equality) for his magnanimity in making 2 unforgettable statements. Clearly he too is a class act.
1) " I refuse to be asked to give the Kenyan people an anaesthetic so that they can be raped."
2) "We should have seven of the 10 parliamentary seats in Kisii, but Kibaki men stole the votes and we only got four. The Kisii are our people. We must not touch them."

People, only one politician. ONE. Has shown that he is a true peace lover through this whole debacle. Cyrus Jirongo who supposedly took to riding a bicycle in Lugari to admonish his constituents from carrying out acts of violence.

I am disgusted at how we are acting in the face of this crisis. We're supposed to be the educated ones, the more sober minded but we act just like those thugs on the Nairobi-Malaba highway.

Melitus Mugabe Were, RIP

Melitus Mugabe Were. Shot dead at 39.

Were, a newly elected Member of Parliament for Embakasi, was the founder and director of Villa Teag Center for Orphans in Dandora. He is pictured alone and with his brothers who are also philanthropists (the deceased is on the left).

What has our country come to when we kill such honorable men?

Source: Soulfari Kenya website