My Views on the Election are Changing

My thoughts on the election are changing slowly and in ways that I find interesting. I was incensed yesterday about the apparent mockery of our electoral process. Irrespective of who won or lost I wanted the process to be carried out in a fair and transparent process. I felt that a corrupt ECK makes a mockery of all of our right to vote. I am a simple Kenyan who simply wanted the electoral process to work flawlessly so that KENYA would win.

Today my feelings are moving more towards sympathy to the Kibaki camp. For these reasons.

- First, Raila more than anyone else was stoking atavistic sentiments. He used words like adui and he was telling people well in advance that Kibaki was planning to rig the election. He created a scenario where anything other than a Raila victory was unacceptable. I would have embraced Raila as my President. I just don't think he would have embraced anyone else as his.

- The numbers coming through that show that the "turnout" in many ODM areas was over 100%. So that means that ODM was not playing fairly after all. So, in my mind, even if Kibaki did not play fairly they were both cheats and Kibaki won.

- Third, and most concerning to me, have been the scenes of people looting generators and refrigerators in Kisumu (and trying on sneakers) under the guise of demonstrating. Then came today's pictures of demonstrators carrying pangas. I truly hope that the GSU shoots all those goons demonstrating with machetes. Peaceful mass demonstration has a place in democracy. An orgy of looting, raping, killing and maiming does not, irrespective of your grievance.

- Fourth the pragmatist in me simply wants to put this behind us. We’re citizens in a country run by crooks and hate mongers so why would one be better than the other.

So, to rub it in real good, Hongera Rais Kibaki. Kazi Iendelee.

Mr. President

Much as I am as angered and disappointed as the next Kenyan that our faith in our electoral process has been shattered, I am resigned now to the fact that barring extraordinary circumstances, we have Mwai Kibaki as our president until 2012.

On the process, I am so angry and aggrieved. If we cannot have a referee who appears to be impartial then why even play the game?

Without unprecedented (in Kenya) pressure from foreign diplomats, in a couple of days this whole hullabaloo will die down. We Kenyans are a poor lot and we'll have to go back to scratching at the dirt to provide for our families. There will be residual anger and resentment for sure, but if Kenya could survive 1969 then we certainly will survive 2007.

Why do I say that we have Kibaki until 2012. Well, our constitution is clear; there are the following requirements for election as President of Kenya, and, per Kivuitu's remarks yesterday, Kibaki has met them all.

- He/she is elected as an MP.
- The winner must receive more valid votes than any of the other candidates
- In addition [the winner must] score at least 25% of the valid votes cast in the election in at least five of the eight provinces into which Kenya is divided.

Importantly, the ECK website goes on to say that the President assumes office as soon as he is declared elected by the ECK.

So what legal options does ODM have remaining?

Other than illegal actions (coup, God forbid) which I will not address here, in order to revisit the election the constitution states that the office of the President must become "vacant"

There are the following reasons for vacancy of the office.

1 - By reason of death
2 - or by reason of resignation
3 - or by reason of hearing and determination of a question whether a person has been validly elected as President
4 - or by reason of his inability by reason of physical or mental infirmity to exercise the functions of that office

1 - Kibaki, like all of us, will die one day but that may not happen before 2012.
2 - I don't see Kibaki willingly resigning, unless there is overwhelming foreign pressure to do so and call fresh elections.
3 - Well our courts are not known for swift decision making, and are also considered somewhat corrupt.
4 - Kibaki, no matter what you think of him, is not mad or incapable. If you choose to go down this path you would need to get the CJ, the Speaker and the Cabinet to work together on the determination. Sooner will a camel pass through the eye of a needle!

So, the only practical legal option is to hold our breath for 5 more years.

Time for Kikuyu Oaths?

Ominous Oaths - TIME

38 years ago a heinous crime was carried out by a Kikuyu against a dynamic up-and-coming Luo politician. In a counterintuitive move the Kikuyus braced themselves for possible reaction from the Luos and closed ranks.

As recounted in this TIME magazine article form the time

The Kikuyu, according to one participant, strip naked, then hold hands in a circle around a darkened hut and chant an oath before entering it. Inside the hut they eat soil and swear to follow the oath. "The government of Kenya is under Kikuyu leadership, and this must be maintained," goes the pledge. "If any tribe tries to set itself up against the Kikuyu, we must fight them in the same way that we died fighting the British settlers. No uncircumcised leaders [for example, the Luo] will be allowed to compete with the Kikuyu. You shall not vote for any party not led by the Kikuyu. If you reveal this oath, may this oath kill you."

I shudder to think that now that there is the wide perception that another (perhaps not so grave) injustice has been carried out on another wuod nam perhaps the Gikuyu will close ranks again and herald the beginning of yet another dark age for Kenya.

Demonstrating or Looting?

There were riots in Kisumu today, the voters were apparently demonstrating (as is their right) against the Electoral Commission's inexplicable delay in announcing the results of the presidential election. But setting their town on fire was absolutely dismaying to me. Really, making away with generators and microwaves is not a great way to show that you're demonstrating for your fundamental rights.

I have been disappointed by my countrymen on many levels today, and I am sure the disappointment will continue.

Thoughts at This Time of Impending Chaos

After what has been arguably a very well managed election process, things are beginning to fall apart. There are riots, endless allegations of electoral impropriety and undue delays in the submission of results from key areas.

Here are some thoughts that we can keep with us during this time. There is undoubtedly something for everyone.

-Silaha

“The limitation of riots, moral questions aside, is that they cannot win and their participants know it. Hence, rioting is not revolutionary but reactionary because it invites defeat. It involves an emotional catharsis, but it must be followed by a sense of futility.”

Martin Luther King, Jr., American Baptist Minister and Civil-Rights Leader. 1929-1968

" What country can preserve it's liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms. The remedy is to set them right as to facts, pardon & pacify them ... The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots & tyrants. It is it's natural manure."

Thomas Jefferson, third President of the United States, the principal author of the Declaration of Independence, and one of the most influential Founding Fathers for his promotion of the ideals of Republicanism in the United States. From the "Tree of Liberty" letter to William Smith. Paris, November 13, 1787

“If you see injustice and say nothing, you have taken the side of the oppressor.”

South African Archbishop Desmond Tutu

“Freedom is never voluntarily given by the oppressor; it must be demanded by the oppressed.”

Martin Luther King, Jr.

“Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did, and it never will. Find out just what people will submit to, and you have found out the exact amount of injustice and wrong which will be imposed upon them; and these will continue till they have resisted with either words or blows, or with both. The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom they suppress.”

Frederick Douglass, African American abolitionist, editor, orator, author, statesman and reformer, 1818- 1895

“Make yourselves sheep and the wolves will eat you.”

Benjamin Franklin, 1706-1790, one of the most important and influential Founding Fathers of the United States. He was a leading author, political theorist, politician, printer, scientist, inventor, civic activist, and diplomat.

"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing."

Edmund Burke, British Statesman and Philosopher, 1729-1797

“Let us never forget that government is ourselves and not an alien power over us. The ultimate rulers of our democracy are not a President and senators and congressmen and government officials, but the voters of this country.”

Franklin D. Roosevelt, Dedication of a Memorial to the Northwest Territory (July 8, 1938)

"We should all be concerned with the future because we will have to spend our lives there."

Charles F. Kettering, American inventor, 1876-1958

"When I despair, I remember that all through history the ways of truth and love have always won. There have been tyrants, and murderers, and for a time they can seem invincible, but in the end they always fall. Think of it - always."

Mahatma Gandhi

“In times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act!”

George Orwell

“The tyranny of a prince in an oligarchy is not so dangerous to the public welfare as the apathy of a citizen in a democracy”

Charles de Montesquieu French Politician and Philosopher, 1689-1755

“This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when he first appears he is a protector.”

Plato, Ancient Greek Philosopher 428 BC-348 BC

"One cannot level one's moral lance at every evil in the universe. There are just too many of them. But you can do something, and the difference between doing something and doing nothing is everything."

Daniel Berrigan, poet, American peace activist, and Roman Catholic priest. Daniel and his brother Philip were for a time on the FBI Ten Most Wanted Fugitives list for committing acts of vandalism including destroying government property.

“An individual has not started living until he can rise above the narrow confines of this individualistic concerns to the broader concerns of all humanity.”

Martin Luther King, Jr.

“Nothing is more common than for a free people, in times of heat and violence, to gratify momentary passions, by letting into the government, principles and precedents which afterwards prove fatal to themselves.”

Alexander Hamliton, Letter from Phocion

"Few will have the greatness to bend history itself, but each one of us can work to change a small portion of events, and in the total of all those acts will be written the history of this generation."

Robert F. Kennedy

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts."

Bertrand Russell

“There is no crueler tyranny than that which is perpetuated under the shield of law and in the name of justice.”

Charles de Montesquieu French Politician and Philosopher, 1689-1755

Thoughts for the day after the election

If Raila holds on to win the presidency this would be the culmination of a journey that began 50 years ago. Even if the presidency slips from his grasp, he has roared with his broad support and his control of Parliament. Here are some thoughts for today.

Learning from history, or not

When experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

Page 284 in Vol. I, Reason in Common Sense of Life of Reason 1905 by George Santayana, Spanish philosopher, essayist, poet, and novelist.

What did Emilio Mwai Kibaki and his entourage not learn from the Narc wave in 2002 and the subsequent 2005 referendum debacle. The Kenyan people spoke then and they are speaking again now. But it may be an age thing because as Santayana goes on to say.

In the first stage of life the mind is frivolous and easily distracted; it misses progress by failing in consecutiveness and persistence. This is the condition of children and barbarians, in whom instinct has learned nothing from experience.

In a second stage men are docile to events, plastic to new habits and suggestions, yet able to graft them on original instincts, which they thus bring to fuller satisfaction. This is the plane of manhood and true progress.

Last comes a stage when retentiveness is exhausted and all that happens is at once forgotten; a vain, because unpractical, repetition of the past takes the place of plasticity and fertile readaptation. In a moving world readaptation is the price of longevity.

On another note...

We will crush you

Tribalism is a distasteful word to educated Africans. It suggests that atavistic fears play a disproportionate role in the politics of new African nations. Distasteful or not, tribalism is a key to many African problems—a point that was made all too emphatically in Kenya last week.

Said a Kikuyu president to his Luo challenger...

"We are going to crush you into flour. Anybody who toys with our progress will be crushed like locusts. Do not say later that I did not warn you publicly."

I urge you all to read this article from TIME magazine dated... Friday, Nov. 07, 1969

Ready or Not, or Whose Kenya Is It?

It was the biggest African political rally in Nairobi's history. Under the hot sun, 20,000 blacks packed into African Stadium, sang and chanted as they waited for the returning hero, just back from London.

Then a mighty roar went up, and there came Tom Mboya on the shoulders of his excited supporters. Around his shoulders was a black skin cape. The sleepy eyes danced with pleasure, and a grin split the gleaming, satin-smooth black face.

With a wave of his fly switch, Tom brought the throng to sudden silence. "My brothers," he cried, "today is a great day for Kenya. When we left for London, the government was in the hands of the Europeans. Now it is we who can open or close the door. Kenya has become an African country!" With one voice, the crowd roared "Uhuru!" (Swahili for freedom).

"Whose Kenya is it?" shouted Tom. "Ours!" shrieked 20,000. Now the mob's chant was in throbbing rhythm. "Are you tired of asking for freedom?" asked Tom. "No!" came the resounding answer.

...

Tom Mboya was exultant: "We have exploded once and for all the myth of white [GEMA?] supremacy." Now it was his task to sell the plan to the doubters and the angry among his own Africans. There were some of both, for Mboya and his delegation were not returning with all they had promised
...

By most who know him, Tom Mboya is respected but not loved, for the hard climb up the ladder has tempered his shy, modest personality with a clinically detached coldness and an occasional ruthlessness that angers enemies and saddens friends. He is courteous and correct, but a hard man to know. He lacks the warm, friendly charm of the African he admires most,

But on Legco's debating floor, few can match his organization of a case or his smooth command of English. And he is second only to Kenyatta as a Swahili orator, whipping African crowds into a frenzy of chants and shouts by the skillful rhythm of his speeches.

But those who have seen Kenyatta recently say that in his 60s he is an alcoholic wreck. There are younger challengers to Mboya too, and his Luo origin remains a handicap among the Kikuyu, who resent the fact that the Luos stayed out of the Mau Mau troubles and inherited good jobs in Nairobi.

...
Mboya speaks as a man of good intentions. But even if Mboya's intentions are to be trusted, there is no assurance that wilder men like Argwings-Kodhek, or Kenyatta's fierce activists, will not rise to power, hurling democratic principles out the window. As Michael Blundell puts it: "It requires a lot of faith."

Source: Ready or Not, TIME magazine cover article, Monday, Mar. 07, 1960

And finally...

Rats and sinking ships

As it appears that the DP/Narc-K/PNU ship is sinking, at least in Parliament, how can we ensure that the rats that have caused such pain to the mwananchi don't quietly slip out of the country. Just like Ketan Somaia four or five years ago, we need to be vigilant to ensure that the perpetrators of grand corruption remain in the country to face their judicial fate.

Tom Mboya on Time Magazine Cover

I have been reading the TIME magazine archives (available free on the web) with some fascination. In 1960 TIME had a cover story on 29 year old Tom Mboya (he may be the only Kenyan to have ever graced the magazine's cover).

It is an excellent story and it talks about his popularity, his background, his relationship with one Pamela Odede, the Mboya airlift, his support of Kenyatta.

The Kikuyu are a people of dark and mystical dreams whose legend relates that when Ngai (God) first divided up the world, he held Kenya in such affection that he kept Mount Kenya as his favorite resting place. He told Gikuyu, the first Kikuyu, that if difficulty ever arose, Gikuyu should make a sacrifice and raise a hand toward Mount Kenya, and Ngai would help. Not far away, under a fig tree, Gikuyu found a beautiful woman, Moombi, to be mother of the Kikuyu race. Later, when their nine beautiful daughters needed husbands, Gikuyu sacrificed a lamb and a kid under a fig tree, smeared their blood on its bark, faced Mount Kenya, and saw his daughters' wishes come true.

From this legend came the Kikuyu deep veneration of their mountain and the earth of its endless slopes.

And perhaps more interesting

In 1929, fierce, bearded Jomo Kenyatta, wild-eyed Kikuyu spokesman and student of telepathy, magic spells and Kikuyu lore, journeyed to London to demand the white man's land and political rights for his people. After 15 years in London and two in Moscow, he returned to Kenya to set up a network of bush schools, which spread antiwhite propaganda and upheld such barbaric Kikuyu rites as female circumcision,* which the missionaries and government officials had tried to stop. District officers stumbled onto fanatic ritual meetings in forest clearings. Later, word spread that tens of thousands of Kikuyu were taking fierce oaths of loyalty to a strange creed called Mau Mau, sealing the bond by drinking blood and waving cat corpses in the air as they sat facing the holy mountain.

Waruru Kanja on Jaramogi: The Best President Kenya Never Had

Even in retirement, Kanja is still a maverick

I just stumbled across this Standard interview of Waruru Kanja Kenya's erstwhile politician from Nyeri. What I found most interesting in these days of Kibaki and Raila were these comments:

He believes Jaramogi Oginga Odinga was the best president Kenya never had.

He remembers when working in Kisumu as a weight and measures officer, he would be sent to deliver Odinga's letters to other freedom fighters.

"Jaramogi was the only man who was well placed to lead this country, but us Kenyans we denied him votes just because he was a Luo. I still hold on to his ideologies of communism," he adds.

...

"Whether I am circumcised or not, should not be used as the judging line for leadership skills."

Wow, plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose

-Silaha

Democracy in Africa | For all its flaws, an example to others | Economist.com

Democracy in Africa | For all its flaws, an example to others | Economist.com

The Economist today has an article that points out the true winner of the current Kenyan election -- democracy in Africa. This election (and yesterday's election of Jacob Zuma as ANC president over Thabo Mbeki) is one of the few tests in Africa where an incumbent is on the back foot. However, as the Economist says, it is "a hard-fought but fair election in a pivotal country".

For all the mudslinging about Kibaki it is important to recognize that he has expanded our democratic space dramatically. (So much so that at times I would get upset with him. If I were president and my ministers insulted me in that fashion they would truly know who was president.) This kind of campaigning would not have even been imaginable with either of our two earlier presidents. Whoever wins this election, if it is free and fair, as it appears it will be, Kenya will win.

I am proud to be Kenyan.

How Kibaki Might Win

You Missed This: Opinion Polls Are Raining On Kenyans

It certainly is true that we are suffering from opinion poll fatigue, but it would be remiss of us to avoid the simple analysis that is possible with these polls. Here is a perfectly logical scenario how Mwai Kibaki can honestly and truthfully win the election on December 27th.

According to the African Elections Database voter turnout for the presidential election in 1997 was 68% and in 2002 was 56% for an average of 62%. Let's assume that overall voter turnout in this year's presidential election will be about the same as the average -- 60-64%.

If you accept, as I expect you would if you know anything about Kenya, that ethnicity plays a larger-than-life role in Kenyan poilitics, then it would not be too big a leap to say that it is likely that the GEMA, Luo and Kamba turnout in this election will be higher than other ethnicities without a presidential candidate.

In my model I assume that turnout in disinterested districts will be 50% and in districts largely populated by one of these three groups turnout will be 75%. Here is how I have categorized the districts using voter data from the Electoral Commission of Kenya.

Province	District	Ethnicity	Registered Voters	Modeled Turnout
Nairobi	Nairobi	Other	1,275,021	50%
Coast	Mombasa	Other	370,286	50%
Coast	Kwale	Other	187,945	50%
Coast	Kilifi	Other	227,555	50%
Coast	Malindi	Other	127,777	50%
Coast	Tana River	Other	84,527	50%
Coast	Lamu	Other	47,539	50%
Coast	Taita	Other	132,690	50%
NEP	Garissa	Other	86,846	50%
NEP	Ijara	Other	16,874	50%
NEP	Wajir	Other	110,138	50%
NEP	Mandera	Other	101,808	50%
Eastern	Moyale	Other	33,478	50%
Eastern	Marsabit	Other	63,972	50%
Eastern	Isiolo	Other	57,573	50%
Eastern	Meru Central	GEMA	297,063	75%
Eastern	Meru North	GEMA	260,530	75%
Eastern	Meru South	GEMA	123,972	75%
Eastern	Tharaka	GEMA	47,261	75%
Eastern	Embu	GEMA	162,902	75%
Eastern	Mbeere	GEMA/Kamba	92,465	75%
Eastern	Kitui	Kamba	245,094	75%
Eastern	Mwingi	Kamba	145,155	75%
Eastern	Machakos	Kamba	488,828	75%
Eastern	Makueni	Kamba	356,400	75%
Central	Nyandarua	GEMA	264,811	75%
Central	Nyeri	GEMA	409,590	75%
Central	Kirinyaga	GEMA	279,441	75%
Central	Murang'a	GEMA	208,244	75%
Central	Maragwa	GEMA	224,409	75%
Central	Kiambu	GEMA	428,497	75%
Central	Thika	GEMA	371,323	75%
RVP	Turkana	Other	138,414	50%
RVP	West Pokot	Other	123,229	50%
RVP	Samburu	Other	68,816	50%
RVP	Trans Nzoia	Other	261,507	50%
RVP	Uasin Gishu	Other	319,615	50%
RVP	Marakwet	Other	68,654	50%
RVP	Keiyo	Other	81,819	50%
RVP	Nandi North	Other	141,535	50%
RVP	Nandi South	Other	131,204	50%
RVP	Baringo	Other	115,399	50%
RVP	Koibatek	Other	72,833	50%
RVP	Laikipia	GEMA	182,091	75%
RVP	Nakuru	GEMA	657,219	75%
RVP	Narok	Other	170,244	50%
RVP	Transmara	Other	73,310	50%
RVP	Kajiado	Other	201,812	50%
RVP	Kericho	Other	234,285	50%
RVP	Bureti	Other	114,149	50%
RVP	Bomet	Other	202,150	50%
Western	Kakamega	Other	289,349	50%
Western	Butere/Mumias	Other	221,751	50%
Western	Lugari	Other	112,509	50%
Western	Vihiga	Other	256,941	50%
Western	Bungoma	Other	357,493	50%
Western	Mt. Elgon	Other	57,578	50%
Western	Busia	Other	183,267	50%
Western	Teso	Other	85,859	50%
Nyanza	Siaya	Luo	220,546	75%
Nyanza	Bondo	Luo	118,383	75%
Nyanza	Kisumu	Luo	211,268	75%
Nyanza	Nyando	Luo	165,618	75%
Nyanza	Rachuonyo	Luo	140,107	75%
Nyanza	Homa Bay	Luo	135,140	75%
Nyanza	Migori	Luo	226,258	75%
Nyanza	Suba	Luo	74,845	75%
Nyanza	Kuria	Other	64,891	50%
Nyanza	Kisii Central	Other	241,236	50%
Nyanza	Gucha	Other	205,173	50%
Nyanza	Kisii North	Other	238,221	50%
			14,294,732

Overall provincial and national turnout given these assumptions is:

Province	Registered voters	Turnout	Votes Cast
	A	B	A*B
RVP	3,358,285	56%	1,880,640
CEN	2,186,315	75%	1,639,736
EAS	2,374,693	73%	1,733,526
NYZ	2,041,686	66%	1,347,513
WES	1,564,747	50%	782,374
NAI	1,275,021	50%	637,511
CST	1,178,319	50%	589,160
NEP	315,666	50%	157,833
Total	14,294,732	61%	8,768,291

For voting patterns by province I used data from the Steadman Poll of December 8th, 2007 as published in the East African Standard. (Where data were missing e.g. for Kalonzo in many provinces I guesstimated a number.)

Province	Kibaki	Raila	Kalonzo
	C	D	E
RVP	36%	61%	1%
CEN	91%	8%	1%
EAS	46%	6%	44%
NYZ	19%	78%	1%
WES	21%	69%	4%
NAI	41%	47%	6%
CST	35%	53%	10%
NEP	27%	65%	3%
Prov > 25%	6	6	1

When I put all of that into a model here is the outcome.

Province	Kibaki Outcome	Raila Outcome	Kalonzo Outcome
	A*B*C	A*B*D	A*B*E
RVP	677,030	1,147,190	18,806
CEN	1,492,160	131,179	16,397
EAS	797,422	104,012	762,751
NYZ	256,027	1,051,060	13,475
WES	164,298	539,838	31,295
NAI	261,379	299,630	38,251
CST	206,206	312,255	58,916
NEP	42,615	102,591	4,735
Total	3,897,138	3,687,754	944,627
Final Outcome	44%	42%	11%

Interesting analysis.

-Silaha