How Kibaki Might Win

You Missed This: Opinion Polls Are Raining On Kenyans

It certainly is true that we are suffering from opinion poll fatigue, but it would be remiss of us to avoid the simple analysis that is possible with these polls. Here is a perfectly logical scenario how Mwai Kibaki can honestly and truthfully win the election on December 27th.

According to the African Elections Database voter turnout for the presidential election in 1997 was 68% and in 2002 was 56% for an average of 62%. Let's assume that overall voter turnout in this year's presidential election will be about the same as the average -- 60-64%.

If you accept, as I expect you would if you know anything about Kenya, that ethnicity plays a larger-than-life role in Kenyan poilitics, then it would not be too big a leap to say that it is likely that the GEMA, Luo and Kamba turnout in this election will be higher than other ethnicities without a presidential candidate.

In my model I assume that turnout in disinterested districts will be 50% and in districts largely populated by one of these three groups turnout will be 75%. Here is how I have categorized the districts using voter data from the Electoral Commission of Kenya.

Province	District	Ethnicity	Registered Voters	Modeled Turnout
Nairobi	Nairobi	Other	1,275,021	50%
Coast	Mombasa	Other	370,286	50%
Coast	Kwale	Other	187,945	50%
Coast	Kilifi	Other	227,555	50%
Coast	Malindi	Other	127,777	50%
Coast	Tana River	Other	84,527	50%
Coast	Lamu	Other	47,539	50%
Coast	Taita	Other	132,690	50%
NEP	Garissa	Other	86,846	50%
NEP	Ijara	Other	16,874	50%
NEP	Wajir	Other	110,138	50%
NEP	Mandera	Other	101,808	50%
Eastern	Moyale	Other	33,478	50%
Eastern	Marsabit	Other	63,972	50%
Eastern	Isiolo	Other	57,573	50%
Eastern	Meru Central	GEMA	297,063	75%
Eastern	Meru North	GEMA	260,530	75%
Eastern	Meru South	GEMA	123,972	75%
Eastern	Tharaka	GEMA	47,261	75%
Eastern	Embu	GEMA	162,902	75%
Eastern	Mbeere	GEMA/Kamba	92,465	75%
Eastern	Kitui	Kamba	245,094	75%
Eastern	Mwingi	Kamba	145,155	75%
Eastern	Machakos	Kamba	488,828	75%
Eastern	Makueni	Kamba	356,400	75%
Central	Nyandarua	GEMA	264,811	75%
Central	Nyeri	GEMA	409,590	75%
Central	Kirinyaga	GEMA	279,441	75%
Central	Murang'a	GEMA	208,244	75%
Central	Maragwa	GEMA	224,409	75%
Central	Kiambu	GEMA	428,497	75%
Central	Thika	GEMA	371,323	75%
RVP	Turkana	Other	138,414	50%
RVP	West Pokot	Other	123,229	50%
RVP	Samburu	Other	68,816	50%
RVP	Trans Nzoia	Other	261,507	50%
RVP	Uasin Gishu	Other	319,615	50%
RVP	Marakwet	Other	68,654	50%
RVP	Keiyo	Other	81,819	50%
RVP	Nandi North	Other	141,535	50%
RVP	Nandi South	Other	131,204	50%
RVP	Baringo	Other	115,399	50%
RVP	Koibatek	Other	72,833	50%
RVP	Laikipia	GEMA	182,091	75%
RVP	Nakuru	GEMA	657,219	75%
RVP	Narok	Other	170,244	50%
RVP	Transmara	Other	73,310	50%
RVP	Kajiado	Other	201,812	50%
RVP	Kericho	Other	234,285	50%
RVP	Bureti	Other	114,149	50%
RVP	Bomet	Other	202,150	50%
Western	Kakamega	Other	289,349	50%
Western	Butere/Mumias	Other	221,751	50%
Western	Lugari	Other	112,509	50%
Western	Vihiga	Other	256,941	50%
Western	Bungoma	Other	357,493	50%
Western	Mt. Elgon	Other	57,578	50%
Western	Busia	Other	183,267	50%
Western	Teso	Other	85,859	50%
Nyanza	Siaya	Luo	220,546	75%
Nyanza	Bondo	Luo	118,383	75%
Nyanza	Kisumu	Luo	211,268	75%
Nyanza	Nyando	Luo	165,618	75%
Nyanza	Rachuonyo	Luo	140,107	75%
Nyanza	Homa Bay	Luo	135,140	75%
Nyanza	Migori	Luo	226,258	75%
Nyanza	Suba	Luo	74,845	75%
Nyanza	Kuria	Other	64,891	50%
Nyanza	Kisii Central	Other	241,236	50%
Nyanza	Gucha	Other	205,173	50%
Nyanza	Kisii North	Other	238,221	50%
			14,294,732

Overall provincial and national turnout given these assumptions is:

Province	Registered voters	Turnout	Votes Cast
	A	B	A*B
RVP	3,358,285	56%	1,880,640
CEN	2,186,315	75%	1,639,736
EAS	2,374,693	73%	1,733,526
NYZ	2,041,686	66%	1,347,513
WES	1,564,747	50%	782,374
NAI	1,275,021	50%	637,511
CST	1,178,319	50%	589,160
NEP	315,666	50%	157,833
Total	14,294,732	61%	8,768,291

For voting patterns by province I used data from the Steadman Poll of December 8th, 2007 as published in the East African Standard. (Where data were missing e.g. for Kalonzo in many provinces I guesstimated a number.)

Province	Kibaki	Raila	Kalonzo
	C	D	E
RVP	36%	61%	1%
CEN	91%	8%	1%
EAS	46%	6%	44%
NYZ	19%	78%	1%
WES	21%	69%	4%
NAI	41%	47%	6%
CST	35%	53%	10%
NEP	27%	65%	3%
Prov > 25%	6	6	1

When I put all of that into a model here is the outcome.

Province	Kibaki Outcome	Raila Outcome	Kalonzo Outcome
	A*B*C	A*B*D	A*B*E
RVP	677,030	1,147,190	18,806
CEN	1,492,160	131,179	16,397
EAS	797,422	104,012	762,751
NYZ	256,027	1,051,060	13,475
WES	164,298	539,838	31,295
NAI	261,379	299,630	38,251
CST	206,206	312,255	58,916
NEP	42,615	102,591	4,735
Total	3,897,138	3,687,754	944,627
Final Outcome	44%	42%	11%

Interesting analysis.

-Silaha